Timberwolves vs Spurs prediction
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Frost Bank Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 114, Timberwolves 113.
Final: SA 121–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 114, Timberwolves 113 (the Spurs won 55% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Terrence Shannon Jr. Timberwolves 22 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Ayo Dosunmu Timberwolves 21 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 27 pts · 11 reb · 2 ast
- Devin Vassell Spurs 22 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 34 | 24 | 34 | 21 | 113 |
| SA | 22 | 28 | 43 | 21 | 114 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 27, Terrence Shannon Jr. 22, Devin Vassell 22, Ayo Dosunmu 21, Jaden McDaniels 17, Dylan Harper 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMelo Ball | 31 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-17 | 3-13 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 8-15 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 25 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 5-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 24 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 8-12 | 2-6 | 3-4 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Cody Williams | 20 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 26 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 7-16 | 2-6 | 6-8 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Zyon Pullin | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Trey Lyles | 18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Clark | 18 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Joan Beringer | 15 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Enrique Freeman | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 7 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 3-3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 33 | 27 | 11 | 2 | 9-12 | 2-2 | 7-7 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Devin Vassell | 30 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 6-19 | 4-11 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Dylan Harper | 30 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8-15 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Stephon Castle | 28 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 5-8 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 22 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Champagnie | 28 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Barnes | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-5 | 3-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keldon Johnson | 26 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Luke Kornet | 15 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Timberwolves are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Timberwolves: McDaniels 32 · Dosunmu 30 · Ball 29 · Kuminga 26 · Williams 25 · Shannon 21 · Hyland 18 · Lyles 16 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo
Spurs: Castle 32 · Vassell 31 · Fox 31 · Wembanyama 30 · Harper 28 · Champagnie 28 · Johnson 23 · Kornet 18 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Timberwolves get out in transition 9th-fewest in the NBA. Spurs allow 7th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Spurs take 42% of their shots from deep (15th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Timberwolves give up 39% of shots from three (2nd-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Ball leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 27% of sims.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 22%.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 56% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 62%.
Champagnie hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Timberwolves hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 63%, up from 45%.
When Spurs hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 74%, up from 55%.
When Timberwolves commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (43% of sims), they win 59%, up from 45%.
Reality check
Timberwolves score 118.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.9 against this defense.
Spurs score 121.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.1 against this defense.
Ball: 20.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.8 · 3.8 · 5.5.
McDaniels: 17.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.9 · 5.7 · 3.
Wembanyama: 28.3 pts · 13.1 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.9 · 11.5 · 2.6.
Castle: 17.8 pts · 7 reb · 7.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.5 · 6.3 · 6.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Keldon Johnson10+ pts75%of sims56%books imply
- Ayo Dosunmu5+ reb55%of sims45%books imply
- Stephon Castle6+ reb55%of sims46%books imply
- Keldon Johnson10+ pts + reb91%of sims82%books imply
- Stephon Castle10+ reb + ast75%of sims67%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.