Chargers vs Rams prediction
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · SoFi Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rams 33, Chargers 17.
Final: LA 24–9. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rams 33, Chargers 17 (the Rams won 76% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rams won 76% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Justin Herbert Chargers 211 pass yds · 1 TD
- Omarion Hampton Chargers 50 rush yds
- Tre Harris Chargers 3 rec · 44 yds
- Matthew Stafford Rams 206 pass yds · 1 TD
- Kyren Williams Rams 123 rush yds · 1 TD
- Puka Nacua Rams 4 rec · 75 yds · 1 TD
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stLA Williams 40-yd TD run 0–7
- 1stLA Turnover returned for a TD 0–14
- 1stLAC 29-yd field goal 3–14
- 2ndLA 56-yd field goal 3–17
- 2ndLA Stafford to Nacua, 21-yd TD 3–24
- 2ndLA 38-yd field goal 10–27
- 4thLA 25-yd field goal 10–30
- 4thLAC Herbert to Lambert-Smith, 6-yd TD 17–30
- 4thLA 40-yd field goal 17–33
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 22/33 | 211 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Omarion Hampton | 9 | 50 | 0 |
| Kimani Vidal | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Harris | 3 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 19 |
| Omarion Hampton | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 | 14 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 14 |
| Ladd McConkey | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 13 |
| Quentin Johnston | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 12 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 11 |
| Derius Davis | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| Kimani Vidal | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 12 |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 6 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/29 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyren Williams | 19 | 123 | 1 |
| Blake Corum | 9 | 39 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 4 | 9 | 75 | 1 | 30 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 3 | 60 | 0 | 23 |
| Colby Parkinson | 5 | 7 | 32 | 0 | 15 |
| Kyren Williams | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 12 |
| Davis Allen | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Rams use play action on 28% of dropbacks (2nd-most).
Who's in the sim
Chargers: QB Herbert · Gadsden 17% of targets · Johnston 14% of targets · McConkey 13% of targets · Hampton 42% of carries
Rams: QB Stafford · Nacua 31% of targets · Williams 15% of targets · Parkinson 14% of targets · Williams 54% of carries. Back: Nacua (missed 2 of 7). Out: Davante Adams
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
Through the air. Chargers complete −1.4 pts more passes than expected (7th-worst). Rams allow −2.8 pts vs expected (3rd-least generous).
Takeaways. Chargers throw an interception on 3% of passes (the most). Rams pick off 2% (10th-most).
On the ground. Rams average 4.8 yards a carry (the best). Chargers allow 4.2 (15th of 32).
Herbert vs the blitz: 6.0 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Rams blitz on 28% of dropbacks (21st of 32).
Herbert's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.87 seconds on average, scrambles on 8.4% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Hampton to the right: 4.1 yards a carry there (31% of his runs), and Rams give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
Johnston draws 14% of the Chargers targets and averages 2.7 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Stafford vs the blitz: 6.8 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Chargers blitz on 27% of dropbacks (6th-fewest).
Stafford's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.78 seconds on average, scrambles on 2.2% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Williams to the left: 5.0 yards a carry there (29% of his runs), and Chargers give up +0.3 yards a carry on that side.
Nacua draws 31% of the Rams targets and averages 2.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gadsden leads the Chargers in receiving yards in 25% of sims.
Herbert throws for 300+ in 8%.
Hampton runs for 100+ in 5%.
Gadsden scores a touchdown in 33%, the likeliest on his team.
Nacua leads the Rams in receiving yards in 74% of sims.
Stafford throws for 300+ in 30%.
Williams runs for 100+ in 25%.
Nacua scores a touchdown in 61%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Chargers run for 120+ yards (33% of sims), they win 48%, up from 22%.
When Hampton runs for 60+ (20% of sims), they win 51%, up from 22%.
When Rams run for 170+ yards (30% of sims), they win 98%, up from 76%.
Reality check
Chargers score 15 a game (last 6). In the sims: 18.4 against this defense.
Rams score 24.3 a game (last 7). In the sims: 29.4 against this defense.
Herbert: 196.7 pass yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 202.
Johnston: 2.2 catches, 43.8 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 2.4, 31.
Hampton: 45.4 rush yds a game (last 7). In the sims: 39.
Stafford: 281 pass yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 263.
Nacua: 9.2 catches, 93.5 yds a game (last 6). In the sims: 7.8, 102.
Williams: 69 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 75.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rams win 76% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (LA −6.5): the Rams cover in 62%.
Total 46.5: over in 54%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.