Suns vs Warriors prediction
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Chase Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Warriors 115, Suns 110.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Warriors won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jalen Green Suns 24 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 23 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 26 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Brandon Williams Warriors 20 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 35 | 18 | 26 | 31 | 110 |
| GS | 30 | 29 | 37 | 19 | 115 |
Top scorers: Yaxel Lendeborg 26, Jalen Green 24, Devin Booker 23, Brandon Williams 20, Brandin Podziemski 14, Dillon Brooks 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 33 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 8-18 | 1-4 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 33 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Green | 26 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 8-12 | 3-5 | 5-7 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Miles Bridges | 23 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dillon Brooks | 18 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 6-12 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Collin Gillespie | 34 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 4-11 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Pat Spencer | 26 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 37 | 26 | 5 | 5 | 9-20 | 3-7 | 5-6 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 29 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Al Horford | 29 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 5-12 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gui Santos | 22 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 5-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 21 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Brandon Williams | 24 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 7-10 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georges Niang | 21 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Bassey | 18 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malevy Leons | 14 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| LJ Cryer | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Gary Payton II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 103).
Warriors are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Suns: Booker 32 · Bridges 28 · Gillespie 27 · Brooks 25 · Green 24 · Kennard 24 · Goodwin 24 · Spencer 23 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 28 · Santos 25 · Williams 22 · Melton 21 · Niang 21 · Horford 20 · Cryer 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Warriors grab 28% of their misses (5th-most). Suns let opponents get 29% (2nd-most).
In transition. Warriors get out in transition 4th-fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 5th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Warriors turn it over on 15% of possessions (4th-most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (5th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 54% of sims.
Lendeborg leads the Warriors in scoring in 36% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 22%.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (29% of sims), they win 67%, up from 47%.
When Warriors hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 74%, up from 53%.
When Warriors commit fewer turnovers than Suns (41% of sims), they win 69%, up from 53%.
Reality check
Suns score 114.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Warriors score 113.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.7 against this defense.
Booker: 27.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.9 · 3.5 · 4.5.
Bridges: 16.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.7 · 6 · 1.6.
Lendeborg: 19.8 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 6. In the sims: 17.2 · 7.2 · 2.9.
Podziemski: 18.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.4 · 3.7 · 4.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Warriors win 53% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.