Lakers vs Warriors prediction
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors, Friday, October 30, 2026 · Chase Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lakers 114, Warriors 109.
Final: GS 112–95. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Lakers 114, Warriors 109 (the Lakers won 56% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lakers won 56% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Luka Doncic Lakers 40 pts · 7 reb · 9 ast
- Collin Sexton Lakers 20 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 19 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Gui Santos Warriors 18 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 25 | 37 | 22 | 30 | 114 |
| GS | 28 | 23 | 28 | 30 | 109 |
Top scorers: Luka Doncic 40, Collin Sexton 20, Yaxel Lendeborg 19, Walker Kessler 18, Stephen Curry 18, Gui Santos 18
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 37 | 40 | 7 | 9 | 10-21 | 7-14 | 13-14 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Austin Reaves | 37 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2-12 | 0-7 | 4-6 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Walker Kessler | 30 | 18 | 11 | 1 | 8-10 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Collin Sexton | 29 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 8-15 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jake LaRavia | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 37 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hardy | 18 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lawson Lovering | 16 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Quentin Grimes | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 36 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-14 | 1-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 30 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 7-22 | 2-11 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Draymond Green | 22 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Stephen Curry | 22 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 6-14 | 4-11 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Gui Santos | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 6-6 | 1-1 | 5-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Al Horford | 33 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 26 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Gary Payton II | 23 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 4-8 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 20 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Graham Ike | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Lakers: Doncic 36 · Reaves 35 · Kessler 31 · LaRavia 27 · Sexton 25 · Lovering 25 · Grimes 24 · Mamukelashvili 24 (projected minutes). Out: Ziaire Williams
Warriors: Lendeborg 34 · Podziemski 30 · Santos 28 · Green 28 · Curry 28 · Melton 23 · Horford 22 · Williams 19 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Lakers finish 73% at the basket (the best; 28% of their shots). Warriors allow 69% there (4th-highest).
Ball security. Warriors turn it over on 15% of possessions (4th-most). Lakers force turnovers on 15% (3rd-most).
Second chances. Warriors grab 28% of their misses (6th-most). Lakers let opponents get 27% (6th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Doncic leads the Lakers in scoring in 74% of sims.
Kessler posts a double-double in 24%.
Doncic hits 5+ threes in 34%.
Curry leads the Warriors in scoring in 37% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 33%.
Curry hits 5+ threes in 21%.
What swings it
When Warriors hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 63%, up from 44%.
When Warriors commit fewer turnovers than Lakers (43% of sims), they win 60%, up from 44%.
When Lakers hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 73%, up from 56%.
Reality check
Lakers score 118.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.4 against this defense.
Warriors score 113.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.1 against this defense.
Doncic: 37.3 pts · 6.5 reb · 7.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.6 · 5.6 · 6.2.
Reaves: 23 pts · 4 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 3.4 · 4.8.
Curry: 25.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 3 · 2.7.
Lendeborg: 22.6 pts · 9.2 reb · 4 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 20 · 8.3 · 2.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lakers win 56% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (LAL −3.5): the Lakers cover in 48%.
Total 234.5: over in 41%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Sandro Mamukelashvili2+ ast67%of sims55%books imply
- Collin Sexton14+ pts53%of sims41%books imply
- Collin Sexton15+ pts + reb + ast71%of sims60%books imply
- Collin Sexton15+ pts + ast58%of sims48%books imply
- Gui Santos10+ pts64%of sims54%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.