Celtics vs Rockets prediction
Boston Celtics at Houston Rockets, Monday, November 2, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 114, Celtics 107.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jayson Tatum Celtics 31 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Paul George Celtics 15 pts · 8 reb · 2 ast
- Amen Thompson Rockets 19 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 19 pts · 11 reb · 8 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 25 | 22 | 32 | 28 | 107 |
| HOU | 29 | 32 | 24 | 29 | 114 |
Top scorers: Jayson Tatum 31, Alperen Sengun 19, Amen Thompson 19, Kevin Durant 18, Fred VanVleet 16, Jabari Smith Jr. 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayson Tatum | 37 | 31 | 5 | 3 | 8-22 | 4-13 | 11-14 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Derrick White | 32 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Paul George | 27 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Walsh | 20 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Neemias Queta | 16 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 6-8 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Payton Pritchard | 29 | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Sam Hauser | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Conley | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Baylor Scheierman | 18 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luka Garza | 18 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 40 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 8-21 | 0-2 | 3-5 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Kevin Durant | 37 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 5-12 | 2-4 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 33 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Alperen Sengun | 33 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 8-21 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Fred VanVleet | 29 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 5-7 | 4-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Marcus Smart | 27 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Sheppard | 24 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 17 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 103).
Celtics are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Celtics: Tatum 34 · Pritchard 33 · White 29 · George 29 · Scheierman 24 · Queta 23 · Hauser 23 · Garza 17 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Carter, Mitchell Robinson
Rockets: Thompson 34 · Durant 33 · Smith 33 · Sengun 31 · VanVleet 30 · Tshiebwe 29 · Smart 27 · Sheppard 24 (projected minutes). Out: Steven Adams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Rockets get out in transition the fewest in the NBA. Celtics allow 3rd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Rockets grab 31% of their misses (the most). Celtics let opponents get 27% (11th of 30).
Ball security. Celtics turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Rockets force turnovers on 14% (14th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring in 55% of sims.
Tatum posts a double-double in 29%.
George hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 36% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 35%.
Smith hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Celtics hit 16+ threes (34% of sims), they win 63%, up from 42%.
When Rockets hit 13+ threes (34% of sims), they win 75%, up from 58%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Celtics (38% of sims), they win 73%, up from 58%.
Reality check
Celtics score 120 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.8 against this defense.
Rockets score 121.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.8 against this defense.
Tatum: 26.2 pts · 9.1 reb · 7.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.8 · 7.7 · 4.5.
George: 20.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 3.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 4.8 · 2.3.
Durant: 24.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.5 · 5.6 · 4.4.
Sengun: 19.8 pts · 8.4 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.4 · 8.5 · 5.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 58% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (HOU −5.5): the Rockets cover in 44%.
Total 219.5: over in 56%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.