Falcons vs Buccaneers prediction
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, November 1, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium. We simulated this game 10,000 times before kickoff, every snap drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Falcons 19, Buccaneers 17.
Final: TB 16–0. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Falcons 19, Buccaneers 17 (the Falcons won 57% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Falcons won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Michael Penix Jr. Falcons 177 pass yds · 2 TD
- Bijan Robinson Falcons 66 rush yds · 1 TD
- Drake London Falcons 3 rec · 102 yds · 1 TD
- Baker Mayfield Buccaneers 171 pass yds · 1 TD
- Kenny Gainwell Buccaneers 35 rush yds
- Cade Otton Buccaneers 5 rec · 43 yds
How it played out: scoring plays
- 1stATL Safety 2–0
- 1stATL Penix to Robinson, 5-yd TD 9–0
- 2ndTB 49-yd field goal 9–3
- 2ndATL 39-yd field goal 12–3
- 2ndATL Penix to London, 25-yd TD 19–3
- 3rdTB Mayfield to Johnson, 21-yd TD 19–10
- 4thTB Irving 1-yd TD run 19–17
Box score
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 14/26 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 22 | 66 | 0 |
| Brian Robinson | 12 | 59 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 3 | 6 | 102 | 1 | 40 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 6 | 26 | 1 | 14 |
| Chris Blair | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 15 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Brian Robinson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 4 |
| Kyle Pitts | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | C/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | SK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 17/29 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Player | CAR | YDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 12 | 24 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | REC | TGT | YDS | TD | LNG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 5 | 8 | 43 | 0 | 12 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 | 21 |
| Ted Hurst III | 2 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 23 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 | 11 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 14 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 6 |
The breakdown
The setup
Wind: 12 mph forecast, which trims the deep passing and long kicks.
Buccaneers blitz on 38% of dropbacks (2nd-most in the NFL).
Buccaneers use play action on 20% of dropbacks (4th-fewest).
Who's in the sim
Falcons: QB Penix · London 27% of targets · Pitts 19% of targets · Dotson 15% of targets · Robinson 62% of carries
Buccaneers: QB Mayfield · Godwin 23% of targets · Otton 21% of targets · Hurst 16% of targets · Irving 57% of carries. Out: Emeka Egbuka
What's mapped in
- Who is actually playing: this week's starting QB, the injury report, and each player's share in the games he played, so a starter back from injury gets his role back.
- Each receiver's own target depth and yards after the catch, against this defense's completions, depth and tackling allowed.
- Each QB's real scramble rate and his blitz splits, against how often this defense blitzes and lets quarterbacks escape.
- Each runner's lanes (left, middle, right) and what he gets in each, against this defense side by side; the box count he usually sees.
- Play action, red-zone and goal-line shares, QB sneaks, each coach's 4th-down habit, penalties, kicks, weather and the clock.
- Game plans that swing like real ones, and a small chance a starter leaves early, so a backup or role player can have his night.
What decides it
After the catch. Falcons gain +0.2 yards after the catch vs expected (4th-best). Buccaneers allow +0.2 (3rd-worst tackling).
The pass rush. Buccaneers take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (8th-most). Falcons get home on 7% (11th-most), blitzing on 30% of dropbacks.
Penix vs the blitz: 6.1 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Buccaneers blitz on 38% of dropbacks (2nd-most).
Penix's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.63 seconds on average, scrambles on 4.2% of dropbacks (league 5.7%).
Robinson to the right: 5.7 yards a carry there (35% of his runs), and Buccaneers give up +0.2 yards a carry on that side.
London draws 27% of the Falcons targets and averages 3.0 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Mayfield vs the blitz: 4.5 yards a dropback (league 6.1). Falcons blitz on 30% of dropbacks (17th of 32).
Mayfield's pocket: gets the ball out in 2.89 seconds on average, scrambles on 6.9% of dropbacks (league 5.7%). Falcons let quarterbacks escape 18% less often than average.
Irving to the left: 5.1 yards a carry there (43% of his runs), and Falcons give up −0.1 yards a carry on that side.
Godwin draws 23% of the Buccaneers targets and averages 3.8 yards of separation when the ball arrives.
Things you'll notice in the sim
London leads the Falcons in receiving yards in 49% of sims.
Penix throws for 300+ in 7%.
Robinson runs for 100+ in 36%.
Robinson scores a touchdown in 56%, the likeliest on his team.
Godwin leads the Buccaneers in receiving yards in 34% of sims.
Mayfield throws for 300+ in 5%.
Irving runs for 100+ in 18%.
Irving scores a touchdown in 47%, the likeliest on his team.
What swings it
When Buccaneers run for 150+ yards (29% of sims), they win 80%, up from 41%.
When Irving runs for 90+ (24% of sims), they win 76%, up from 41%.
When Falcons run for 160+ yards (29% of sims), they win 89%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Falcons score 24.4 a game (last 7). In the sims: 21.8 against this defense.
Buccaneers score 23.1 a game (last 7). In the sims: 19.1 against this defense.
Penix: 231.4 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 205.
London: 5.2 catches, 88.8 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.8, 63.
Robinson: 92.1 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 88.
Mayfield: 176.4 pass yds a game (last 5). In the sims: 191.
Otton: 3.2 catches, 35 yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 4.1, 42.
Irving: 80.4 rush yds a game (last 8). In the sims: 65.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Falcons win 57% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (TB −2.5): the Buccaneers cover in 38%.
Total 42.5: over in 44%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every snap uses real plays from the same down, distance and field position, adjusted for this offense against this defense, with weather, penalties, turnovers, kicks and the clock. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.