Trail Blazers vs Jazz prediction
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz, Saturday, October 31, 2026 · Delta Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 123, Jazz 116.
Final: POR 112–90. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Trail Blazers 123, Jazz 116 (the Trail Blazers won 64% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Trail Blazers won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 28 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Jrue Holiday Trail Blazers 25 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Keyonte George Jazz 22 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast
- Lauri Markkanen Jazz 18 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 21 | 32 | 33 | 37 | 123 |
| UTAH | 31 | 20 | 25 | 40 | 116 |
Top scorers: Deni Avdija 28, Jrue Holiday 25, Keyonte George 22, Lauri Markkanen 18, Donovan Clingan 17, Kyle Filipowski 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 37 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 7-15 | 5-10 | 9-14 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jrue Holiday | 34 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 9-21 | 3-11 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Damian Lillard | 28 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Toumani Camara | 27 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Donovan Clingan | 27 | 17 | 11 | 4 | 6-14 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Scoot Henderson | 26 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Potter | 22 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Vit Krejci | 21 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Williams III | 18 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauri Markkanen | 35 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 7-20 | 2-11 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keyonte George | 29 | 22 | 2 | 8 | 9-18 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Ace Bailey | 23 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Darryn Peterson | 23 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 21 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 27 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Collier | 27 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Blake Hinson | 24 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 18 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-8 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Trail Blazers: Avdija 34 · Camara 32 · Holiday 30 · Lillard 30 · Clingan 26 · Henderson 25 · Potter 20 · Williams 18 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
Jazz: Bailey 31 · Peterson 29 · Markkanen 28 · George 28 · Hayes 25 · Sensabaugh 23 · Collier 22 · Filipowski 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Trail Blazers take 47% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Jazz give up 44% of shots from three (4th-most).
At the rim. Trail Blazers finish 66% at the basket (20th of 30; 31% of their shots). Jazz allow 71% there (the highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 45% of sims.
Avdija posts a double-double in 24%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 18%.
Markkanen leads the Jazz in scoring in 26% of sims.
Filipowski posts a double-double in 17%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 15+ threes (29% of sims), they win 55%, up from 36%.
When Trail Blazers hit 18+ threes (33% of sims), they win 84%, up from 64%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Trail Blazers (41% of sims), they win 51%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Trail Blazers score 119.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.9 against this defense.
Jazz score 116.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Avdija: 25 pts · 7.1 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.9 · 5.7 · 6.8.
Lillard: 18.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 4. In the sims: 17.5 · 3 · 2.8.
George: 21.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 2.6 · 5.2.
Markkanen: 20.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 5.6 · 1.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Trail Blazers win 64% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.