How our NBA prop model works

The same method as our NFL board, translated to basketball: how a trend qualifies, how Our Rating works, how matchups are ranked and how we grade ourselves — in plain language.

The data

Every player's box score — points, rebounds, assists, threes and minutes, plus whether he played — comes from ESPN via the open sportsdataverse project. Rosters reflect this season's teams, and the schedule, Vegas spread and total, and the injury report come from ESPN's public feeds. We never type in a stat by hand.

How a trend qualifies

A trend is the highest alternate line — on the ladder sportsbooks post for that stat — that a player has cleared in at least 80% of his games across last season and this season combined. Points and the points combos step in fives (20+, 25+); rebounds, assists, threes and rebounds + assists step one at a time. A player needs at least ten games and eighteen minutes a game. Every hit rate shows its sample, so "17 of 20" never hides behind "85%".

Games a player missed don't count. A game he started and left early does — that's a real result, not a void.

Who we show

Players on this season's rosters, on their current team, for the next two nights of games. Anyone listed out or doubtful is removed automatically; questionable and day-to-day players are flagged.

Our Rating

Our Rating (0–100) is our estimate of the probability that this exact line hits. It starts from the player's own hit rate, pulled toward the league average according to sample size, then adjusts for the opponent's defense against his position, his team's Vegas implied total and rest — the second night of a back-to-back costs a little. The size of every adjustment was fit on two full NBA seasons, graded game by game using only information available before tip-off.

Matchups

Each opponent gets a defensive rank against every stat for each position group — guards, forwards and centers — based on what it allows per game, with this season weighted about three times as heavily as last. #1 is the toughest defense, #30 the easiest.

Track Record

From opening night, every trend we would have shown is graded after the game using only the data available before it — hits and misses, published together on the Track Record tab.

Limits

These are historical base rates and probability estimates, not predictions or guarantees. Minutes and rotations change quickly, and early-season samples lean on last season. Backed By Stats is not betting advice. 21+ and only where legal. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.