NFL Anytime Touchdown Predictions: Week 8
Free, with no sign-up: each player's estimated chance to score a touchdown in Week 8, from red-zone usage, targets, carries, snaps, the matchup and the team's Vegas total. Fair price is the American price that matches our chance. Best price is the best we found at the books we track. Started games drop off. Not betting advice.
These games have kicked off. Open the board for the next slate.
| Player | Pos | Game | TD chance | Fair | Best price | TD games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | RB | CHI vs SEA | 49% | +106 | −110 | 12/23 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | SEA vs CHI | 42% | +135 | −105 | 13/24 |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | SEA vs CHI | 33% | +199 | +375 | 5/24 |
| Stefon Diggs | WR | WAS vs PHI | 31% | +218 | +215 | 7/22 |
| Rachaad White | RB | WAS vs PHI | 30% | +230 | +130 | 5/22 |
| George Holani | RB | SEA vs CHI | 30% | +231 | +650 | 2/11 |
| Colston Loveland | TE | CHI vs SEA | 30% | +238 | +235 | 7/23 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI vs WAS | 28% | +261 | +165 | 9/21 |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI vs WAS | 27% | +265 | +265 | 9/20 |
| AJ Barner | TE | SEA vs CHI | 27% | +273 | +250 | 7/24 |
| Treylon Burks | WR | WAS vs PHI | 26% | +281 | +475 | 3/13 |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI vs SEA | 24% | +320 | +265 | 5/19 |
| Tory Horton | WR | SEA vs CHI | 21% | +372 | +410 | 5/14 |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | SEA vs CHI | 20% | +388 | +300 | 3/23 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS vs PHI | 20% | +389 | +240 | 3/11 |
| Luther Burden III | WR | CHI vs SEA | 19% | +413 | +230 | 4/22 |
| Roschon Johnson | RB | CHI vs SEA | 19% | +418 | +350 | 1/7 |
| Antonio Williams | WR | WAS vs PHI | 18% | +469 | +330 | 1/6 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | WAS vs PHI | 17% | +478 | +3500 | 3/9 |
| Makai Lemon | WR | PHI vs WAS | 17% | +500 | +350 | 1/7 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | CHI vs SEA | 17% | +501 | +550 | 5/21 |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | WAS vs PHI | 17% | +506 | +320 | 2/21 |
| Darius Cooper | WR | PHI vs WAS | 16% | +541 | +475 | 3/20 |
| Jeremy McNichols | RB | WAS vs PHI | 15% | +573 | +450 | 1/18 |
| Austin Ekeler | RB | WAS vs PHI | 14% | +590 | +700 | 0/5 |
| Marquise Brown | WR | PHI vs WAS | 14% | +630 | — | 4/18 |
| Kalif Raymond | WR | CHI vs SEA | 11% | +787 | +575 | 3/22 |
| Dyami Brown | WR | WAS vs PHI | 11% | +826 | +700 | 1/20 |
| Jahdae Walker | WR | CHI vs SEA | 10% | +856 | +2400 | 3/14 |
| Van Jefferson | WR | WAS vs PHI | 10% | +894 | +3000 | 1/17 |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | PHI vs WAS | 9% | +1010 | +425 | 0/2 |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | PHI vs WAS | 8% | +1233 | +4000 | 1/16 |
| John Bates | TE | WAS vs PHI | 7% | +1379 | +1900 | 1/21 |
| Elijah Moore | WR | PHI vs WAS | 6% | +1498 | +2250 | 1/14 |
| Eric Saubert | TE | SEA vs CHI | 6% | +1591 | +1200 | 1/18 |
| Ben Sinnott | TE | WAS vs PHI | 4% | +2253 | +2250 | 1/22 |
| Sam Roush | TE | CHI vs SEA | 4% | +2424 | +850 | 0/7 |
| Zavion Thomas | WR | CHI vs SEA | 4% | +2495 | +1300 | 0/6 |
| Tanner McKee | QB | PHI vs WAS | 3% | +3156 | +1200 | 0/6 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | SEA vs CHI | 3% | +3322 | +700 | 0/23 |
How good is the model?
Graded on 2,444 completed 2026 player-games using only what was known before each game: players scored 17.6% of the time against a predicted 18.0%, and the model separates scorers from non-scorers better than a plain usage baseline (AUC 0.746 vs 0.713). A touchdown is still unlikely for nearly everyone, so read these as chances, not calls.
More: the full Touchdown Model · this week's player props · methodology
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