Frequently Asked Questions
Short answers about Backed By Stats: what is free, whether you need an account, and how the numbers work.
Is Backed By Stats really free?
Yes. The NFL and NBA prop boards, hit rates, matchup ratings, game simulations and Track Record are all free to use. There is no paywall, no premium tier and no credit card.
Do I need to sign up or make an account?
No. Everything works the moment the page opens, with no account and no email. The only sign-up on the site is an optional newsletter. Sending a slip to Playbook happens on X, so that one optional step uses your X account.
What is a prop hit rate?
The share of games a player has cleared a line. We use alternate lines the way sportsbooks post them, keep the ones cleared in at least 80% of games across last season and this season, and show the sample beside every number.
What does Our Rating mean?
Our estimate of the probability the line hits, from 0 to 100: the hit rate, pulled toward the league average when the sample is small, then adjusted for the opponent's defense, the Vegas total and more. The NFL and NBA methodology pages show the details.
What does defense vs position mean?
How much of a stat each defense gives up to a position, ranked across the league. Our free tables cover the NFL and the NBA; #1 is the toughest matchup.
How often is the data updated?
Several times a day. Injuries, rosters, sportsbook prices and game lines refresh automatically, and anyone ruled out comes off the board.
Which sportsbooks do you compare?
The major US books we track, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and Caesars. Use the Sportsbooks button on a board to see prices from one book, a few or all of them.
How accurate are your picks?
Every trend we show is graded in public after the game. NFL: 1,908 of 2,452 (77.8%); NBA: 2,865 of 3,676 (77.9%). A high hit rate does not mean profit, because lines this likely often carry short prices.
How do the game predictions work?
Every game is simulated 10,000 times from real play-by-play, and we show the most plausible outcome with a box score. The simulations never see a betting price, and they are not built to beat the spread.
Is this betting advice?
No. This is statistics and research. You must be 21 or older and in a state where betting is legal to bet. If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Historical data, not betting advice. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.