Wizards vs Thunder prediction
Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Paycom Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 111, Wizards 104.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 75% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Anthony Davis Wizards 22 pts · 9 reb · 2 ast
- Will Riley Wizards 17 pts · 6 reb · 0 ast
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 37 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 15 pts · 6 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 26 | 25 | 31 | 22 | 104 |
| OKC | 33 | 22 | 23 | 33 | 111 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 37, Anthony Davis 22, Will Riley 17, Ajay Mitchell 15, Alex Sarr 14, Trae Young 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 37 | 22 | 9 | 2 | 9-14 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 30 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Trae Young | 28 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 25 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Kyshawn George | 23 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 28 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-4 | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Will Riley | 26 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 7-16 | 3-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Bub Carrington | 23 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 4-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Gill | 21 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 33 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 14-29 | 3-8 | 6-7 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 31 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 6-13 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 27 | 10 | 12 | 2 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenrich Williams | 20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jared McCain | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Dix | 33 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4-7 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Aday Mara | 25 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Alex Caruso | 22 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Micah Peavy | 16 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dalen Terry | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Wizards are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Thunder are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Davis 32 · Carrington 31 · Young 29 · Dybantsa 29 · George 26 · Gill 26 · Coulibaly 24 · Sarr 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 30 · Mitchell 24 · McCain 23 · Peavy 23 · Hartenstein 21 · Mara 20 · Williams 20 · Caruso 19 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Thunder turn it over on 13% of possessions (the fewest). Wizards force turnovers on 14% (8th-fewest).
Second chances. Wizards grab 24% of their misses (2nd-fewest). Thunder let opponents get 27% (10th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 41% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 51%.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 76% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 23%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 12+ threes (35% of sims), they win 41%, up from 25%.
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (30% of sims), they win 42%, up from 25%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 87%, up from 75%.
Reality check
Wizards score 112.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 105.1 against this defense.
Thunder score 116 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.9 against this defense.
Davis: 22.2 pts · 10.1 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.5 · 10.4 · 1.6.
Young: 18.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.1 · 3.4 · 6.2.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 28.7 · 4.1 · 5.1.
Mitchell: 14.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15 · 3.5 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 75% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.