Wizards vs Pistons prediction
Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, Monday, November 9, 2026 · Little Caesars Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pistons 114, Wizards 107.
Final: DET 122–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pistons 114, Wizards 107 (the Pistons won 74% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pistons won 74% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Anthony Davis Wizards 24 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Kyshawn George Wizards 23 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Ausar Thompson Pistons 19 pts · 8 reb · 8 ast
- Cade Cunningham Pistons 18 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 26 | 28 | 31 | 22 | 107 |
| DET | 18 | 29 | 26 | 41 | 114 |
Top scorers: Anthony Davis 24, Kyshawn George 23, Ausar Thompson 19, Cade Cunningham 18, Alex Sarr 16, Elijah Harkless 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trae Young | 36 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 4-11 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 33 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Kyshawn George | 31 | 23 | 3 | 3 | 8-12 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Anthony Davis | 30 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 9-22 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Alex Sarr | 27 | 16 | 4 | 1 | 6-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Tre Johnson | 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bub Carrington | 23 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Gill | 21 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Deandre Ayton | 13 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cunningham | 30 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5-15 | 2-6 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ausar Thompson | 30 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 9-12 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Duncan Robinson | 29 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Paul Reed | 24 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Collins | 21 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 4-6 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Elijah Harkless | 31 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Taurean Prince | 24 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Huerter | 24 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniss Jenkins | 22 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ronald Holland II | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Pistons are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Davis 32 · Young 31 · Dybantsa 30 · George 29 · Johnson 26 · Carrington 26 · Gill 25 · Sarr 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Bilal Coulibaly, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
Pistons: Cunningham 30 · Prince 28 · Robinson 27 · Harkless 26 · Jenkins 26 · Thompson 25 · Huerter 25 · Collins 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Joe
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Pistons grab 28% of their misses (8th-most). Wizards let opponents get 29% (2nd-most).
From three. Pistons take 38% of their shots from deep (6th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Wizards give up 41% of shots from three (10th-fewest).
In transition. Pistons get out in transition 7th-most in the NBA. Wizards allow 10th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 42% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 41%.
Cunningham leads the Pistons in scoring in 38% of sims.
Cunningham posts a double-double in 25%.
Robinson hits 5+ threes in 26%.
What swings it
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Pistons (33% of sims), they win 42%, up from 26%.
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (33% of sims), they win 41%, up from 26%.
When Pistons hit 15+ threes (38% of sims), they win 87%, up from 74%.
Reality check
Wizards score 108.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 105.2 against this defense.
Pistons score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.6 against this defense.
Davis: 22.2 pts · 10.1 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.7 · 9.2 · 1.6.
Young: 18 pts · 3.3 reb · 8.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15 · 3.1 · 6.3.
Cunningham: 20 pts · 5.3 reb · 8.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.6 · 5.4 · 7.2.
Robinson: 17.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.9 · 1.7 · 2.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pistons win 74% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.