Wizards vs Pacers prediction
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Gainbridge Fieldhouse. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Pacers 118, Wizards 113.
Final: IND 114–101. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Pacers 118, Wizards 113 (the Pacers won 55% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Pacers won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Trae Young Wizards 30 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
- AJ Dybantsa Wizards 21 pts · 10 reb · 4 ast
- Pascal Siakam Pacers 28 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- Andrew Nembhard Pacers 14 pts · 1 reb · 6 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 23 | 23 | 42 | 25 | 113 |
| IND | 30 | 35 | 27 | 26 | 118 |
Top scorers: Trae Young 30, Pascal Siakam 28, AJ Dybantsa 21, Anthony Davis 15, Tre Johnson 14, Aaron Nesmith 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa | 34 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 9-13 | 1-2 | 2-6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kyshawn George | 32 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 4-12 | 1-5 | 3-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Anthony Davis | 31 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Trae Young | 29 | 30 | 3 | 4 | 9-16 | 2-6 | 10-10 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 22 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Anthony Gill | 33 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 27 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Tre Johnson | 26 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Deandre Ayton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 32 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 13-24 | 1-6 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 31 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 5-11 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ivica Zubac | 31 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 25 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Kelly Oubre Jr. | 24 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| T.J. McConnell | 24 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Obi Toppin | 22 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jarace Walker | 18 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kobe Brown | 17 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Quenton Jackson | 16 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 5-13 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Young 32 · Davis 32 · Dybantsa 31 · George 31 · Johnson 30 · Sarr 25 · Coulibaly 24 · Gill 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
Pacers: Nembhard 32 · Siakam 30 · Nesmith 26 · Jackson 25 · Toppin 24 · Oubre 23 · Brown 23 · Zubac 22 (projected minutes). Out: Tyrese Haliburton, Johnny Furphy, Ben Sheppard
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Wizards take 40% of their shots from deep (8th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Pacers give up 40% of shots from three (4th-fewest).
Ball security. Pacers turn it over on 14% of possessions (11th of 30). Wizards force turnovers on 14% (5th-fewest).
Second chances. Wizards grab 25% of their misses (2nd-fewest). Pacers let opponents get 27% (15th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 49% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 48%.
Siakam leads the Pacers in scoring in 42% of sims.
Zubac posts a double-double in 20%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (30% of sims), they win 62%, up from 45%.
When Pacers hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 74%, up from 55%.
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Pacers (44% of sims), they win 59%, up from 45%.
Reality check
Wizards score 108.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112 against this defense.
Pacers score 111.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.1 against this defense.
Davis: 24.8 pts · 10.5 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23 · 9.8 · 1.8.
Young: 18.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 2.9 · 7.7.
Siakam: 23.1 pts · 6.6 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 6.3 · 3.6.
Nembhard: 16.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 8.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.3 · 2 · 7.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Pacers win 55% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.