Wizards vs Hornets prediction
Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Spectrum Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hornets 119, Wizards 112.
Final: CHA 110–103. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Hornets 119, Wizards 112 (the Hornets won 65% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hornets won 65% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Anthony Davis Wizards 28 pts · 10 reb · 3 ast
- Will Riley Wizards 19 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Naz Reid Hornets 24 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast
- Brandon Miller Hornets 20 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 22 | 24 | 26 | 40 | 112 |
| CHA | 31 | 28 | 28 | 32 | 119 |
Top scorers: Anthony Davis 28, Naz Reid 24, Brandon Miller 20, Will Riley 19, Deandre Ayton 16, Dennis Schroder 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 37 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 11-21 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| Anthony Gill | 32 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 4-8 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyshawn George | 23 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Alex Sarr | 22 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 5-12 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 20 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Deandre Ayton | 18 | 16 | 7 | 0 | 8-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Trae Young | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bub Carrington | 14 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Will Riley | 45 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 7-11 | 4-7 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Justin Champagnie | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Miller | 26 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 3-4 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Moussa Diabate | 26 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Naz Reid | 30 | 24 | 6 | 3 | 9-15 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Dennis Schroder | 29 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner | 24 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sion James | 22 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 4-11 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Royce O'Neale | 19 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| PJ Hall | 19 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hannes Steinbach | 16 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Grayson Allen | 13 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Liam McNeeley | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Davis 33 · Gill 28 · Young 28 · Riley 28 · Carrington 25 · Coulibaly 25 · George 23 · Ayton 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Tristan Vukcevic
Hornets: Miller 31 · Reid 28 · Diabate 26 · Allen 24 · Schroder 23 · James 21 · O'Neale 21 · Kalkbrenner 19 (projected minutes). Out: Kon Knueppel, Coby White, Grant Williams
What decides it
Second chances. Hornets grab 29% of their misses (4th-most). Wizards let opponents get 29% (2nd-most).
In transition. Wizards get out in transition 4th-most in the NBA. Hornets allow 3rd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (37% of sims), they win 49%, up from 35%.
When Hornets hit 16+ threes (38% of sims), they win 81%, up from 65%.
When Hornets commit fewer turnovers than Wizards (41% of sims), they win 79%, up from 65%.
Reality check
Wizards score 115.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112 against this defense.
Hornets score 113.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.5 against this defense.
Davis: 20.8 pts · 11 reb · 2.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19 · 10.1 · 1.8.
Young: 19.9 pts · 2 reb · 8.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.5 · 1.9 · 6.8.
Miller: 19.3 pts · 4.2 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.3 · 3.4 · 3.2.
Reid: 14.5 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.8 · 6 · 1.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hornets win 65% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.