Wizards vs Hawks prediction
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, Friday, November 6, 2026 · State Farm Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Hawks 118, Wizards 100.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Hawks won 65% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Kyshawn George Wizards 20 pts · 1 reb · 2 ast
- Anthony Davis Wizards 19 pts · 14 reb · 2 ast
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker Hawks 25 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- CJ McCollum Hawks 20 pts · 1 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 21 | 25 | 23 | 31 | 100 |
| ATL | 27 | 23 | 34 | 34 | 118 |
Top scorers: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25, Kyshawn George 20, CJ McCollum 20, Anthony Davis 19, Dyson Daniels 15, Alex Sarr 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyshawn George | 37 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 6-16 | 2-8 | 6-6 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Anthony Davis | 29 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 8-19 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| AJ Dybantsa | 26 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 25 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Trae Young | 20 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 3-10 | 0-4 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Anthony Gill | 32 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will Riley | 29 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 25 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bub Carrington | 16 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 30 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 9-17 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Luguentz Dort | 30 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 5-11 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ McCollum | 28 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 7-16 | 4-10 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 27 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dyson Daniels | 22 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kingston Flemings | 28 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 25 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Keshon Gilbert | 19 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Corey Kispert | 17 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3-8 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Wilson | 14 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Davis 32 · Carrington 30 · Young 29 · Dybantsa 29 · George 27 · Gill 26 · Coulibaly 24 · Sarr 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
Hawks: Alexander-Walker 30 · Daniels 29 · Okongwu 28 · McCollum 26 · Dort 25 · Wiggins 25 · Wilson 24 · Flemings 22 (projected minutes). Out: Jalen Johnson, Jock Landale
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Hawks get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. Wizards allow 7th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Wizards grab 24% of their misses (2nd-fewest). Hawks let opponents get 27% (9th-fewest).
From three. Wizards take 40% of their shots from deep (8th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Hawks give up 41% of shots from three (7th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 45% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 54%.
Alexander-Walker leads the Hawks in scoring in 44% of sims.
Okongwu posts a double-double in 32%.
Alexander-Walker hits 5+ threes in 27%.
What swings it
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Hawks (31% of sims), they win 52%, up from 35%.
When Hawks hit 17+ threes (37% of sims), they win 83%, up from 65%.
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (37% of sims), they win 48%, up from 35%.
Reality check
Wizards score 112.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.5 against this defense.
Hawks score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117 against this defense.
Davis: 22.2 pts · 10.1 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.1 · 10.6 · 1.7.
Young: 18.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.8 · 3.5 · 6.5.
Alexander-Walker: 22.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21 · 3.6 · 2.8.
McCollum: 15.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.5 · 3.8 · 4.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Hawks win 65% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.