Wizards vs Cavaliers prediction
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers, Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Cavaliers 121, Wizards 114.
Final: CLE 121–111. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Cavaliers 121, Wizards 114 (the Cavaliers won 71% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Cavaliers won 71% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Anthony Davis Wizards 28 pts · 12 reb · 1 ast
- Kyshawn George Wizards 21 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 26 pts · 4 reb · 7 ast
- Evan Mobley Cavaliers 18 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 28 | 36 | 18 | 32 | 114 |
| CLE | 26 | 35 | 32 | 28 | 121 |
Top scorers: Anthony Davis 28, Donovan Mitchell 26, Kyshawn George 21, Bilal Coulibaly 20, Evan Mobley 18, James Harden 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 30 | 28 | 12 | 1 | 13-25 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 26 | 20 | 6 | 4 | 8-10 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyshawn George | 25 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 8-13 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Alex Sarr | 21 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1-10 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Trae Young | 20 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Bub Carrington | 34 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 5-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Anthony Gill | 32 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Will Riley | 30 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Deandre Ayton | 14 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 3-3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Khris Middleton | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 10-17 | 1-3 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| James Harden | 32 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 2-13 | 0-7 | 13-13 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Evan Mobley | 32 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 8-15 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Jarrett Allen | 20 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 5-7 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Peyton Watson | 18 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Sam Merrill | 31 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 4-7 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 27 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4-8 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Meleek Thomas | 24 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 3-9 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Thomas Bryant | 20 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Wizards: Davis 33 · Young 29 · Gill 28 · Carrington 26 · Riley 26 · Coulibaly 24 · George 23 · Sarr 23 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Tre Johnson, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
Cavaliers: Harden 34 · Mitchell 34 · Mobley 31 · Merrill 28 · Watson 28 · Allen 26 · Tyson 22 · Thomas 19 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Wizards get out in transition 5th-most in the NBA. Cavaliers allow 10th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Cavaliers grab 27% of their misses (14th of 30). Wizards let opponents get 29% (the most).
At the rim. Cavaliers finish 68% at the basket (9th-best; 30% of their shots). Wizards allow 68% there (10th-highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 40% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 50%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 43% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 35%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 12%.
What swings it
When Wizards hit 12+ threes (27% of sims), they win 47%, up from 29%.
When Cavaliers hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 86%, up from 71%.
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Cavaliers (40% of sims), they win 44%, up from 29%.
Reality check
Wizards score 115.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.6 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 121.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121.8 against this defense.
Davis: 21.9 pts · 10.7 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.9 · 10.3 · 1.7.
Young: 18.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 8.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.1 · 2.4 · 6.8.
Mitchell: 26.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 4.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22 · 4.8 · 5.8.
Harden: 18.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.1 · 3.8 · 7.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Cavaliers win 71% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.