Warriors vs Spurs prediction
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, Friday, November 13, 2026 · Frost Bank Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 119, Warriors 113.
Final: SA 123–85. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 119, Warriors 113 (the Spurs won 64% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 64% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 31 pts · 11 reb · 5 ast
- Brandin Podziemski Warriors 14 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 30 pts · 13 reb · 1 ast
- Stephon Castle Spurs 21 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 37 | 36 | 18 | 22 | 113 |
| SA | 26 | 26 | 29 | 38 | 119 |
Top scorers: Yaxel Lendeborg 31, Victor Wembanyama 30, Stephon Castle 21, Dylan Harper 17, Brandin Podziemski 14, LJ Cryer 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 34 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 13-26 | 4-9 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 25 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6-10 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Draymond Green | 20 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Will Richard | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gui Santos | 12 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 27 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2-14 | 2-9 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Malevy Leons | 22 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| LJ Cryer | 21 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-8 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georges Niang | 20 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Al Horford | 17 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Bassey | 13 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Gary Payton II | 11 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 6-10 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 33 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Devin Vassell | 33 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 32 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 28 | 30 | 13 | 1 | 10-22 | 0-5 | 10-12 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
| Stephon Castle | 24 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9-13 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Keldon Johnson | 25 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Julian Champagnie | 20 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Luke Kornet | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Harrison Barnes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Warriors: Podziemski 30 · Lendeborg 30 · Green 25 · Melton 23 · Niang 21 · Santos 19 · Horford 19 · Richard 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porzingis
Spurs: Harper 30 · Champagnie 29 · Vassell 28 · Wembanyama 28 · Fox 28 · Castle 27 · Johnson 26 · Barnes 18 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Spurs finish 67% at the basket (8th-best; 32% of their shots). Warriors allow 69% there (4th-highest).
In transition. Spurs get out in transition 8th-most in the NBA. Warriors allow 7th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Lendeborg leads the Warriors in scoring in 50% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 19%.
Lendeborg hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 66% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 56%.
What swings it
When Warriors hit 16+ threes (38% of sims), they win 54%, up from 36%.
When Spurs hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 81%, up from 64%.
When Warriors commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (42% of sims), they win 50%, up from 36%.
Reality check
Warriors score 117.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111 against this defense.
Spurs score 119.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116.8 against this defense.
Lendeborg: 21.7 pts · 7.4 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.3 · 6.6 · 3.
Podziemski: 17.8 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.1 · 4.3 · 4.
Wembanyama: 30.3 pts · 11.7 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.2 · 10.7 · 2.4.
Harper: 18 pts · 5.4 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.8 · 5.1 · 4.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 64% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (SA −12.5): the Spurs cover in 34%.
Total 216.5: over in 71%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Victor Wembanyama15+ pts + ast96%of sims92Our Rating
- Victor Wembanyama25+ pts + reb + ast92%of sims89Our Rating
- De'Aaron Fox15+ pts + ast71%of sims89Our Rating81%books imply
- Stephon Castle8+ reb + ast74%of sims88Our Rating89%books imply
- De'Aaron Fox10+ pts67%of sims87Our Rating79%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.