Warriors vs Rockets prediction
Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 115, Warriors 114.
Final: HOU 115–108. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 115, Warriors 114 (the Rockets won 56% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 56% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Stephen Curry Warriors 23 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Yaxel Lendeborg Warriors 22 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 28 pts · 11 reb · 3 ast
- Kevin Durant Rockets 23 pts · 8 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 31 | 28 | 29 | 26 | 114 |
| HOU | 29 | 32 | 27 | 27 | 115 |
Top scorers: Alperen Sengun 28, Kevin Durant 23, Stephen Curry 23, Yaxel Lendeborg 22, Brandin Podziemski 15, Jabari Smith Jr. 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 33 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 5-12 | 3-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephen Curry | 30 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 5-15 | 4-10 | 9-10 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 29 | 22 | 5 | 4 | 9-16 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Draymond Green | 23 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Gui Santos | 20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 24 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 6-12 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Georges Niang | 22 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1-5 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Bassey | 19 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Al Horford | 18 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Graham Ike | 17 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 5-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Richard | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amen Thompson | 36 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 5-11 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alperen Sengun | 34 | 28 | 11 | 3 | 11-23 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 33 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Durant | 31 | 23 | 8 | 5 | 7-17 | 2-6 | 7-9 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Fred VanVleet | 29 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 3-8 | 2-4 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Sheppard | 22 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tari Eason | 21 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 19 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Smart | 15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 29 · Curry 27 · Green 25 · Melton 23 · Niang 22 · Santos 21 · Horford 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis, Brandon Williams
Rockets: Smith 34 · Durant 33 · Thompson 32 · Sengun 32 · VanVleet 29 · Eason 26 · Sheppard 23 · Tshiebwe 18 (projected minutes). Out: Steven Adams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Rockets grab 31% of their misses (the most). Warriors let opponents get 27% (8th-most).
At the rim. Rockets finish 67% at the basket (9th-best; 28% of their shots). Warriors allow 69% there (4th-highest).
From three. Rockets take 37% of their shots from deep (3rd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Warriors give up 42% of shots from three (19th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Curry leads the Warriors in scoring in 46% of sims.
Curry hits 5+ threes in 24%.
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 30% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 35%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Warriors hit 16+ threes (35% of sims), they win 63%, up from 44%.
When Rockets hit 13+ threes (32% of sims), they win 73%, up from 56%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Warriors (44% of sims), they win 71%, up from 56%.
Reality check
Warriors score 117.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.4 against this defense.
Rockets score 117.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.2 against this defense.
Curry: 27.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.9 · 3.4 · 3.1.
Lendeborg: 21.4 pts · 7.2 reb · 4 ast over his last 11. In the sims: 18.2 · 6 · 2.8.
Durant: 22 pts · 6.3 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.9 · 5.4 · 3.8.
Sengun: 19.5 pts · 9.5 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 8.1 · 5.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 56% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (HOU −6.5): the Rockets cover in 41%.
Total 219.5: over in 62%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Tari Eason15+ pts + reb56%of sims46%books imply
- Tari Eason10+ pts54%of sims44%books imply
- Tari Eason15+ pts + reb + ast63%of sims55%books imply
- Tari Eason10+ pts + ast63%of sims56%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.