Warriors vs Pelicans prediction

How it played out: quarter by quarter

Top scorers: Yaxel Lendeborg 27, Derik Queen 22, Saddiq Bey 20, Zion Williamson 19, De'Anthony Melton 18, Yves Missi 17

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).

2. Who's in the sim

   Warriors: Lendeborg 30 · Podziemski 30 · Green 24 · Melton 23 · Niang 21 · Richard 19 · Santos 19 · Horford 18 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porzingis

   Pelicans: Bey 31 · Williamson 31 · Fears 29 · Jones 24 · Queen 24 · Poole 23 · Reese 23 · Missi 22 (projected minutes). Out: Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Trendon Watford

3. What's mapped in

   • Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
   • Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
   • Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
   • Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
   • Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.

4. What decides it

   In transition. Pelicans get out in transition 4th-most in the NBA. Warriors allow 3rd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.

   From three. Warriors take 48% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Pelicans give up 44% of shots from three (8th-most).

   At the rim. Warriors finish 67% at the basket (8th-best; 26% of their shots). Pelicans allow 68% there (7th-highest).

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Lendeborg leads the Warriors in scoring in 53% of sims.

   Lendeborg posts a double-double in 19%.

   Cryer hits 5+ threes in 11%.

   Williamson leads the Pelicans in scoring in 37% of sims.

   Reese posts a double-double in 17%.

6. What swings it

   When Warriors hit 16+ threes (38% of sims), they win 70%, up from 50%.

   When Warriors commit fewer turnovers than Pelicans (44% of sims), they win 65%, up from 50%.

   When Pelicans hit 10+ threes (32% of sims), they win 66%, up from 50%.

7. Reality check

   Warriors score 116.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.6 against this defense.

   Pelicans score 116.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.6 against this defense.

   Lendeborg: 20.9 pts · 7.8 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.5 · 6.6 · 3.1.

   Podziemski: 15.9 pts · 4.8 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.7 · 4.1 · 4.1.

   Williamson: 21.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.2 · 4.4 · 2.7.

   Fears: 16.6 pts · 5 reb · 5.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 4.2 · 5.9.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Pelicans win 50% of the 10,000 games.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Zion Williamson15+ pts + ast
     87%of sims
     88Our Rating
   • Saddiq Bey3+ reb
     62%of sims
     86Our Rating
   • Brandin Podziemski1+ threes
     88%of sims
     86Our Rating
   • Draymond Green3+ ast
     96%of sims
     86Our Rating
   • Draymond Green8+ reb + ast
     79%of sims
     85Our Rating