Warriors vs Nuggets prediction
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Ball Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 114, Warriors 113.
Final: GS 134–114. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Nuggets 114, Warriors 113 (the Nuggets won 61% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Brandin Podziemski Warriors 22 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Stephen Curry Warriors 19 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 25 pts · 16 reb · 7 ast
- Jamal Murray Nuggets 24 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS | 25 | 23 | 32 | 33 | 113 |
| DEN | 28 | 31 | 31 | 24 | 114 |
Top scorers: Nikola Jokic 25, Jamal Murray 24, Brandin Podziemski 22, Stephen Curry 19, Graham Ike 18, DeMar DeRozan 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 36 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Al Horford | 28 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Stephen Curry | 26 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 5-13 | 3-9 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brandin Podziemski | 25 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 8-14 | 2-7 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Draymond Green | 25 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Gui Santos | 24 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3-7 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Graham Ike | 21 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 8-14 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 26 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-2 | 8-8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Gary Payton II | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMar DeRozan | 43 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 6-16 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Nikola Jokic | 37 | 25 | 16 | 7 | 9-20 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Jamal Murray | 30 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 8-8 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Christian Braun | 28 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Gordon | 28 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4-5 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 20 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 32 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 5-6 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Cam Whitmore | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Brazile | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 104).
Who's in the sim
Warriors: Lendeborg 34 · Podziemski 31 · Green 29 · Santos 28 · Curry 27 · Melton 24 · Horford 23 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, Kristaps Porzingis
Nuggets: Murray 38 · Jokic 36 · Braun 32 · Gordon 30 · DeRozan 27 · Brazile 23 · Nembhard 22 · Bagley 18 (projected minutes). Out: Cameron Johnson, Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Warriors take 48% of their shots from deep (2nd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Nuggets give up 43% of shots from three (8th-most).
At the rim. Warriors finish 68% at the basket (7th-best; 27% of their shots). Nuggets allow 69% there (5th-highest).
Second chances. Nuggets grab 27% of their misses (17th of 30). Warriors let opponents get 28% (3rd-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Curry leads the Warriors in scoring in 34% of sims.
Lendeborg posts a double-double in 26%.
Curry hits 5+ threes in 20%.
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 42% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 64%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 14%.
What swings it
When Warriors hit 15+ threes (35% of sims), they win 58%, up from 39%.
When Nuggets hit 13+ threes (28% of sims), they win 79%, up from 61%.
When Nuggets commit fewer turnovers than Warriors (40% of sims), they win 77%, up from 61%.
Reality check
Warriors score 113.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.8 against this defense.
Nuggets score 126.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.3 against this defense.
Curry: 23.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.4 · 2.8 · 2.6.
Podziemski: 19.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.4 · 4.3 · 3.2.
Murray: 27 pts · 4.7 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.9 · 3.8 · 5.4.
Jokic: 25.1 pts · 13.9 reb · 11.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.8 · 10.9 · 7.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 61% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Gui Santos12+ pts50%of sims35%books imply
- Gui Santos15+ pts + reb57%of sims43%books imply
- Gui Santos10+ pts + ast77%of sims65%books imply
- Gui Santos15+ pts + reb + ast70%of sims58%books imply
- De'Anthony Melton3+ reb63%of sims52%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.