Trail Blazers vs Timberwolves prediction
Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves, Monday, November 16, 2026 · Target Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 119, Trail Blazers 113.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Timberwolves won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Damian Lillard Trail Blazers 27 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 22 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Jonathan Kuminga Timberwolves 21 pts · 7 reb · 3 ast
- Ayo Dosunmu Timberwolves 20 pts · 4 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 22 | 31 | 40 | 20 | 113 |
| MIN | 31 | 19 | 42 | 27 | 119 |
Top scorers: Damian Lillard 27, Deni Avdija 22, Jonathan Kuminga 21, Ayo Dosunmu 20, Jaden McDaniels 19, LaMelo Ball 18
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 35 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 12-17 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Deni Avdija | 30 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 7-16 | 2-7 | 6-8 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Toumani Camara | 26 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Donovan Clingan | 26 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 6-11 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Scoot Henderson | 20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jrue Holiday | 26 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 23 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Branden Carlson | 19 | 10 | 8 | 1 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Robert Williams III | 17 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Micah Potter | 13 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Youngblood | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 37 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 7-16 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 35 | 21 | 7 | 3 | 7-11 | 1-2 | 6-8 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 27 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 6-12 | 2-4 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Gobert | 27 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 5-8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| LaMelo Ball | 25 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 6-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 25 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Joan Beringer | 22 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cody Williams | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey Lyles | 14 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 12 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Trail Blazers: Avdija 31 · Lillard 28 · Camara 27 · Holiday 27 · Cissoko 24 · Clingan 24 · Henderson 23 · Williams 18 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
Timberwolves: McDaniels 32 · Dosunmu 29 · Kuminga 29 · Gobert 28 · Ball 26 · Shannon 25 · Lyles 21 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Trail Blazers turn it over on 15% of possessions (3rd-most). Timberwolves force turnovers on 15% (6th-most).
In transition. Trail Blazers get out in transition 4th-fewest in the NBA. Timberwolves allow 20th of 30 fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Trail Blazers finish 66% at the basket (18th of 30; 29% of their shots). Timberwolves allow 64% there (4th-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 43% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 24%.
Lillard hits 5+ threes in 14%.
Dosunmu leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 24% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 27%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 18%.
What swings it
When Trail Blazers hit 16+ threes (33% of sims), they win 64%, up from 43%.
When Timberwolves hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 75%, up from 57%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (33% of sims), they win 60%, up from 43%.
Reality check
Trail Blazers score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.7 against this defense.
Timberwolves score 120.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.7 against this defense.
Avdija: 23.9 pts · 6.1 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 4.9 · 5.6.
Lillard: 20.6 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.7 · 2.5 · 3.5.
Dosunmu: 18.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.7 · 4.1 · 3.2.
Ball: 18.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 3.3 · 5.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Timberwolves win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Deni Avdija15+ pts73%of sims90Our Rating
- Deni Avdija20+ pts + reb69%of sims89Our Rating
- Deni Avdija20+ pts + ast74%of sims89Our Rating
- LaMelo Ball20+ pts + reb + ast70%of sims88Our Rating
- LaMelo Ball15+ pts + reb71%of sims86Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.