Trail Blazers vs Suns prediction
Portland Trail Blazers at Phoenix Suns, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 119, Suns 112.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Trail Blazers won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 23 pts · 6 reb · 9 ast
- Toumani Camara Trail Blazers 17 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 20 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Jalen Green Suns 16 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 28 | 33 | 28 | 30 | 119 |
| PHX | 27 | 20 | 37 | 28 | 112 |
Top scorers: Deni Avdija 23, Devin Booker 20, Branden Carlson 17, Toumani Camara 17, Jalen Green 16, Dillon Brooks 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toumani Camara | 33 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Deni Avdija | 30 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 7-13 | 3-6 | 6-10 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Damian Lillard | 25 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2-10 | 1-7 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Scoot Henderson | 22 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 3-10 | 2-7 | 4-5 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Clingan | 20 | 6 | 13 | 2 | 3-9 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Branden Carlson | 33 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 7-8 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jrue Holiday | 25 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 3-8 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Vit Krejci | 22 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-5 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 14 | 9 | 1 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Potter | 10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Bridges | 34 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Devin Booker | 32 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 7-12 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 24 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Green | 23 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 7-16 | 1-5 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Dillon Brooks | 21 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Collin Gillespie | 28 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Kennard | 24 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 24 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 4-11 | 4-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 18 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 11 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Trail Blazers: Avdija 31 · Camara 29 · Lillard 27 · Holiday 27 · Henderson 25 · Clingan 23 · Potter 21 · Williams 20 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
Suns: Booker 32 · Bridges 28 · Gillespie 27 · Brooks 25 · Kennard 25 · Green 24 · Goodwin 24 · Spencer 23 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Trail Blazers grab 29% of their misses (4th-most). Suns let opponents get 29% (2nd-most).
Ball security. Trail Blazers turn it over on 15% of possessions (7th-most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (5th-most).
In transition. Trail Blazers get out in transition 9th-fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 6th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 44% of sims.
Avdija posts a double-double in 17%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 15%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 55% of sims.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 63%, up from 42%.
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (34% of sims), they win 78%, up from 58%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Suns (36% of sims), they win 75%, up from 58%.
Reality check
Trail Blazers score 119.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Suns score 114.6 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.7 against this defense.
Avdija: 25.3 pts · 6.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.3 · 5.5 · 5.8.
Lillard: 19.2 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 5. In the sims: 17.2 · 3.3 · 2.6.
Booker: 27.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.2 · 3.5 · 4.4.
Bridges: 16.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.8 · 6.1 · 1.5.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Trail Blazers win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.