Trail Blazers vs Lakers prediction
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, Friday, November 6, 2026 · crypto.com Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Lakers 120, Trail Blazers 114.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Lakers won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 27 pts · 2 reb · 7 ast
- Damian Lillard Trail Blazers 25 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Luka Doncic Lakers 36 pts · 7 reb · 5 ast
- Austin Reaves Lakers 18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 27 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 114 |
| LAL | 29 | 23 | 44 | 24 | 120 |
Top scorers: Luka Doncic 36, Deni Avdija 27, Damian Lillard 25, Austin Reaves 18, Walker Kessler 15, Robert Williams III 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 35 | 27 | 2 | 7 | 10-18 | 1-4 | 6-8 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Damian Lillard | 28 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 8-13 | 2-3 | 7-12 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Scoot Henderson | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 3-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Donovan Clingan | 27 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Toumani Camara | 23 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 4-15 | 4-11 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jrue Holiday | 35 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 3-6 | 3-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 23 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 6-7 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Potter | 16 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Branden Carlson | 9 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | 38 | 36 | 7 | 5 | 10-27 | 5-15 | 11-12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Walker Kessler | 28 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 5-6 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Austin Reaves | 27 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 4-7 | 4-5 | 6-6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Ziaire Williams | 24 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Matisse Thybulle | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Quentin Grimes | 32 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4-9 | 0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | 29 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Collin Sexton | 27 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4-11 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jake LaRavia | 19 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Trail Blazers: Avdija 32 · Holiday 31 · Camara 30 · Lillard 28 · Henderson 24 · Clingan 24 · Williams 20 · Potter 19 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
Lakers: Doncic 33 · Reaves 33 · Kessler 29 · Grimes 28 · Mamukelashvili 26 · Sexton 24 · LaRavia 23 · Williams 23 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Trail Blazers grab 30% of their misses (2nd-most). Lakers let opponents get 28% (4th-most).
Ball security. Trail Blazers turn it over on 15% of possessions (5th-most). Lakers force turnovers on 15% (3rd-most).
From three. Trail Blazers take 47% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Lakers give up 43% of shots from three (11th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 47% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 25%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Doncic leads the Lakers in scoring in 73% of sims.
Kessler posts a double-double in 41%.
Doncic hits 5+ threes in 34%.
What swings it
When Trail Blazers hit 16+ threes (32% of sims), they win 67%, up from 46%.
When Lakers hit 15+ threes (33% of sims), they win 73%, up from 54%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Lakers (39% of sims), they win 63%, up from 46%.
Reality check
Trail Blazers score 118.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.5 against this defense.
Lakers score 117.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117 against this defense.
Avdija: 25.4 pts · 6.1 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.9 · 4.6 · 6.1.
Lillard: 20.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 7. In the sims: 17.5 · 3.2 · 3.2.
Doncic: 37.2 pts · 7.3 reb · 7.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.1 · 6.9 · 6.3.
Reaves: 21.9 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 3.3 · 4.4.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Lakers win 54% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.