Trail Blazers vs Kings prediction
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings, Friday, November 13, 2026 · Golden 1 Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 115, Kings 107.
Final: POR 120–107. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Trail Blazers 115, Kings 107 (the Trail Blazers won 68% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Trail Blazers won 68% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Damian Lillard Trail Blazers 18 pts · 0 reb · 3 ast
- Jrue Holiday Trail Blazers 18 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 23 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
- Domantas Sabonis Kings 21 pts · 9 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 20 | 33 | 31 | 31 | 115 |
| SAC | 29 | 18 | 32 | 28 | 107 |
Top scorers: Darius Acuff Jr. 23, Domantas Sabonis 21, Zach LaVine 18, De'Andre Hunter 18, Damian Lillard 18, Jrue Holiday 18
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | 31 | 18 | 0 | 3 | 4-12 | 2-7 | 8-10 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Deni Avdija | 29 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 4-14 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Toumani Camara | 29 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7-14 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Scoot Henderson | 22 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 5-10 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Donovan Clingan | 21 | 9 | 14 | 3 | 4-12 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 29 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jrue Holiday | 28 | 18 | 2 | 4 | 5-9 | 3-6 | 5-5 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Potter | 20 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Robert Williams III | 17 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 6-8 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Branden Carlson | 14 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 39 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 8-22 | 2-9 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 34 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 9-13 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach LaVine | 33 | 18 | 6 | 3 | 5-11 | 3-8 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 33 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 7-11 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Keegan Murray | 30 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 6-11 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Daeqwon Plowden | 28 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2-10 | 0-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leaky Black | 19 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1-7 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 13 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Emanuel Sharp | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Trail Blazers: Avdija 30 · Holiday 28 · Lillard 27 · Camara 27 · Clingan 24 · Cissoko 22 · Henderson 21 · Williams 18 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
Kings: Acuff 35 · Sabonis 31 · LaVine 30 · Hunter 29 · Murray 27 · Black 26 · Cardwell 23 · Sharp 20 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Precious Achiuwa
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Trail Blazers get out in transition 5th-fewest in the NBA. Kings allow 5th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Kings take 40% of their shots from deep (8th-fewest in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.05 points a shot. Trail Blazers give up 40% of shots from three (5th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 44% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 25%.
Lillard hits 5+ threes in 11%.
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 58% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 56%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 17%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 50%, up from 32%.
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (30% of sims), they win 85%, up from 68%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Kings (45% of sims), they win 81%, up from 68%.
Reality check
Trail Blazers score 119.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 118.4 against this defense.
Kings score 109.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 110.7 against this defense.
Avdija: 23.2 pts · 6.1 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.8 · 5.1 · 6.4.
Lillard: 19.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 11. In the sims: 17.6 · 2.7 · 3.6.
Acuff: 26.2 pts · 3.8 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 11. In the sims: 25.9 · 3.6 · 6.7.
LaVine: 20.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.5 · 3 · 2.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Trail Blazers win 68% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (POR −10.5): the Trail Blazers cover in 44%.
Total 229.5: over in 48%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Deni Avdija15+ pts77%of sims92Our Rating92%books imply
- Deni Avdija20+ pts + reb74%of sims92Our Rating93%books imply
- Deni Avdija20+ pts + ast81%of sims92Our Rating94%books imply
- Toumani Camara1+ threes88%of sims89Our Rating95%books imply
- Jrue Holiday5+ reb + ast85%of sims88Our Rating90%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.