Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Toyota Center (Houston). We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 116, Timberwolves 106.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jaden McDaniels Timberwolves 26 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
- Cody Williams Timberwolves 16 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
- Amen Thompson Rockets 19 pts · 10 reb · 5 ast
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 19 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 30 | 32 | 28 | 16 | 106 |
| HOU | 28 | 26 | 33 | 29 | 116 |
Top scorers: Jaden McDaniels 26, Alperen Sengun 19, Reed Sheppard 19, Amen Thompson 19, Kevin Durant 18, Cody Williams 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayo Dosunmu | 34 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 32 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 11-17 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Cody Williams | 32 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 5-10 | 2-4 | 4-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Rudy Gobert | 27 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 4-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| LaMelo Ball | 22 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1-10 | 1-7 | 4-4 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 27 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 4-10 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 24 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3-13 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 23 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 4-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joan Beringer | 13 | 7 | 11 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trey Lyles | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 38 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5-15 | 2-2 | 6-6 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Amen Thompson | 36 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 7-8 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 32 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Fred VanVleet | 31 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Alperen Sengun | 29 | 19 | 3 | 3 | 7-11 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus Smart | 35 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3-13 | 2-8 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Reed Sheppard | 27 | 19 | 4 | 3 | 7-15 | 5-9 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 11 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Timberwolves: McDaniels 31 · Dosunmu 29 · Gobert 28 · Ball 27 · Kuminga 26 · Williams 24 · Shannon 24 · Beringer 21 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo
Rockets: Thompson 34 · Durant 33 · Smith 33 · Sengun 31 · VanVleet 30 · Tshiebwe 29 · Smart 27 · Sheppard 24 (projected minutes). Out: Steven Adams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Rockets take 37% of their shots from deep (3rd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.08 points a shot. Timberwolves give up 39% of shots from three (the fewest).
In transition. Rockets get out in transition the fewest in the NBA. Timberwolves allow 8th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Ball leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 23% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 30%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 17%.
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 33% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 33%.
Smith hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Timberwolves hit 14+ threes (28% of sims), they win 69%, up from 49%.
When Rockets hit 12+ threes (37% of sims), they win 68%, up from 51%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (41% of sims), they win 67%, up from 51%.
Reality check
Timberwolves score 119.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.9 against this defense.
Rockets score 121.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.4 against this defense.
Ball: 19.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.5 · 3.6 · 5.4.
McDaniels: 17.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.2 · 4.8 · 3.2.
Durant: 24.7 pts · 5.8 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.3 · 5.3 · 4.3.
Sengun: 19.8 pts · 8.4 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 8.1 · 5.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 51% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.