Timberwolves vs Pelicans prediction
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Pelicans, Friday, November 6, 2026 · Smoothie King Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 120, Pelicans 104.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Timberwolves won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- LaMelo Ball Timberwolves 33 pts · 3 reb · 8 ast
- Ayo Dosunmu Timberwolves 20 pts · 1 reb · 1 ast
- Dejounte Murray Pelicans 23 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Saddiq Bey Pelicans 17 pts · 6 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 31 | 35 | 23 | 31 | 120 |
| NO | 19 | 30 | 26 | 29 | 104 |
Top scorers: LaMelo Ball 33, Dejounte Murray 23, Ayo Dosunmu 20, Saddiq Bey 17, Bones Hyland 16, Jeremiah Fears 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayo Dosunmu | 31 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 9-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden McDaniels | 30 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 5-12 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| LaMelo Ball | 30 | 33 | 3 | 8 | 9-20 | 7-16 | 8-8 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 29 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Gobert | 25 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Clark | 22 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 20 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 5-8 | 3-5 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Joan Beringer | 19 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cody Williams | 17 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Trey Lyles | 17 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson | 33 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 6-13 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Dejounte Murray | 32 | 23 | 4 | 4 | 9-13 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Herbert Jones | 30 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3-8 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Julian Reese | 22 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 18 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 5-15 | 1-4 | 5-7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Saddiq Bey | 29 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 7-16 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Derik Queen | 28 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jordan Poole | 28 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 2-7 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0-5 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 105 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Timberwolves: McDaniels 31 · Dosunmu 29 · Gobert 29 · Kuminga 28 · Ball 27 · Beringer 22 · Williams 22 · Lyles 20 (projected minutes). Out: Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo, Terrence Shannon Jr.
Pelicans: Bey 31 · Fears 30 · Murray 30 · Williamson 30 · Queen 29 · Reese 27 · Jones 22 · Matkovic 20 (projected minutes). Out: Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Pelicans take 36% of their shots from deep (the fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Timberwolves give up 40% of shots from three (the fewest).
At the rim. Pelicans finish 65% at the basket (4th-worst; 39% of their shots). Timberwolves allow 65% there (5th-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Ball leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 27% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 32%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 22%.
Fears leads the Pelicans in scoring in 27% of sims.
Reese posts a double-double in 32%.
What swings it
When Pelicans commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (45% of sims), they win 56%, up from 41%.
When Timberwolves hit 14+ threes (34% of sims), they win 76%, up from 59%.
When Pelicans hit 10+ threes (35% of sims), they win 56%, up from 41%.
Reality check
Timberwolves score 119.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.6 against this defense.
Pelicans score 120.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.7 against this defense.
Ball: 19.8 pts · 4 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.1 · 3.5 · 5.5.
McDaniels: 17.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.3 · 4.9 · 3.4.
Fears: 20 pts · 4.8 reb · 5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.6 · 4 · 4.
Williamson: 19.6 pts · 4.9 reb · 2.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.5 · 4.1 · 2.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Timberwolves win 59% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.