Timberwolves vs Heat prediction
Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat, Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Heat 117, Timberwolves 115.
Final: MIN 131–106. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Heat 117, Timberwolves 115 (the Heat won 54% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Heat won 54% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 33 | 28 | 18 | 36 | 115 |
| MIA | 26 | 31 | 35 | 25 | 117 |
Top scorers: Cody Williams 24, Bobby Portis 23, LaMelo Ball 23, Bam Adebayo 22, Jaden McDaniels 20, Giannis Antetokounmpo 20
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.