Timberwolves vs Cavaliers prediction
Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Rocket Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Timberwolves 118, Cavaliers 112.
Final: CLE 127–125. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Timberwolves 118, Cavaliers 112 (the Timberwolves won 51% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Timberwolves won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Anthony Edwards Timberwolves 23 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
- Jaden McDaniels Timberwolves 18 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- Donovan Mitchell Cavaliers 19 pts · 2 reb · 5 ast
- Peyton Watson Cavaliers 19 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 24 | 29 | 38 | 27 | 118 |
| CLE | 30 | 23 | 30 | 29 | 112 |
Top scorers: Anthony Edwards 23, Peyton Watson 19, Donovan Mitchell 19, Mario Hezonja 18, Jaden McDaniels 18, Terrence Shannon Jr. 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden McDaniels | 45 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7-17 | 3-5 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| Ayo Dosunmu | 39 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 4-10 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Edwards | 35 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 9-21 | 4-7 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rudy Gobert | 34 | 13 | 19 | 2 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| LaMelo Ball | 21 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 4-15 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cody Williams | 14 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jonathan Kuminga | 27 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bones Hyland | 13 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Terrence Shannon Jr. | 11 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 5-6 | 4-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | 34 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| James Harden | 33 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Evan Mobley | 33 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 4-12 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| Peyton Watson | 33 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 7-10 | 2-3 | 3-6 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sam Merrill | 27 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 3-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jarrett Allen | 27 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 8-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Mario Hezonja | 21 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 7-15 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Bryant | 18 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylon Tyson | 14 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-9 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 104).
Timberwolves are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Timberwolves: Edwards 31 · Dosunmu 31 · Gobert 30 · McDaniels 30 · Ball 29 · Williams 27 · Kuminga 23 · Hyland 19 (projected minutes). Out: Donte DiVincenzo
Cavaliers: Harden 34 · Mitchell 34 · Mobley 30 · Merrill 28 · Watson 28 · Allen 26 · Tyson 23 · Hezonja 20 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Cavaliers grab 27% of their misses (15th of 30). Timberwolves let opponents get 26% (4th-fewest).
At the rim. Timberwolves finish 67% at the basket (13th of 30; 29% of their shots). Cavaliers allow 63% there (2nd-lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Edwards leads the Timberwolves in scoring in 40% of sims.
Gobert posts a double-double in 43%.
Ball hits 5+ threes in 22%.
Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in scoring in 43% of sims.
Mobley posts a double-double in 28%.
Mitchell hits 5+ threes in 8%.
What swings it
When Cavaliers hit 14+ threes (33% of sims), they win 67%, up from 49%.
When Timberwolves hit 15+ threes (37% of sims), they win 69%, up from 51%.
When Cavaliers commit fewer turnovers than Timberwolves (44% of sims), they win 64%, up from 49%.
Reality check
Timberwolves score 114.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.4 against this defense.
Cavaliers score 120.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.1 against this defense.
Edwards: 25 pts · 3.8 reb · 3.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.9 · 3.7 · 3.7.
Ball: 20.9 pts · 4.2 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.9 · 4.2 · 4.8.
Mitchell: 26.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21 · 4.7 · 4.7.
Harden: 18.9 pts · 4.3 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.1 · 3.6 · 7.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Timberwolves win 51% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.