Thunder vs Trail Blazers prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · Moda Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 110, Trail Blazers 105.
Final: POR 118–108. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 110, Trail Blazers 105 (the Thunder won 53% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 31 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast
- Jared McCain Thunder 25 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 30 pts · 9 reb · 8 ast
- Donovan Clingan Trail Blazers 14 pts · 5 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 27 | 19 | 35 | 29 | 110 |
| POR | 19 | 30 | 20 | 36 | 105 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 31, Deni Avdija 30, Jared McCain 25, Nique Clifford 15, Donovan Clingan 14, Jrue Holiday 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 27 | 31 | 3 | 6 | 12-22 | 3-6 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Peavy | 27 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 21 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Kenrich Williams | 18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared McCain | 17 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 9-15 | 4-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aday Mara | 25 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Dix | 25 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2-7 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 23 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Caruso | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nique Clifford | 19 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 6-9 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Nikola Topic | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 39 | 30 | 9 | 8 | 10-25 | 1-8 | 9-10 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Donovan Clingan | 26 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-7 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Scoot Henderson | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Damian Lillard | 21 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 2-12 | 1-8 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Toumani Camara | 21 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 4-11 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jrue Holiday | 27 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Robert Williams III | 21 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 18 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Potter | 17 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Branden Carlson | 15 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yang Hansen | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| John Tonje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Thunder are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Trail Blazers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 30 · Peavy 25 · McCain 24 · Hartenstein 23 · Mara 21 · Stirtz 19 · Williams 18 · Caruso 18 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace
Trail Blazers: Avdija 30 · Holiday 28 · Lillard 27 · Camara 27 · Clingan 24 · Henderson 22 · Cissoko 20 · Williams 19 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Trail Blazers take 47% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Thunder give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
In transition. Trail Blazers get out in transition 8th-fewest in the NBA. Thunder allow the fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Trail Blazers finish 66% at the basket (10th-worst; 30% of their shots). Thunder allow 61% there (the lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 85% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 22%.
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 41% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 26%.
Lillard hits 5+ threes in 13%.
What swings it
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (32% of sims), they win 68%, up from 47%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (30% of sims), they win 71%, up from 53%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (28% of sims), they win 65%, up from 47%.
Reality check
Thunder score 112.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.8 against this defense.
Trail Blazers score 119.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.5 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.8 pts · 4 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.8 · 3.8 · 4.4.
McCain: 12.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.7 · 3.3 · 1.6.
Avdija: 23.8 pts · 6.2 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.3 · 5.1 · 6.
Lillard: 20 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.3 ast over his last 10. In the sims: 16.8 · 2.7 · 3.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 53% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (POR −2.5): the Trail Blazers cover in 42%.
Total 224.5: over in 49%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Robert Williams III6+ pts66%of sims49%books imply
- Robert Williams III10+ pts + reb74%of sims58%books imply
- Robert Williams III6+ reb56%of sims46%books imply
- Toumani Camara2+ ast56%of sims46%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.