Thunder vs Trail Blazers prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, Tuesday, November 10, 2026 · Moda Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 119, Trail Blazers 108.
Final: POR 123–103. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 119, Trail Blazers 108 (the Thunder won 57% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 37 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 18 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Scoot Henderson Trail Blazers 16 pts · 0 reb · 1 ast
- Jrue Holiday Trail Blazers 15 pts · 5 reb · 8 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 19 | 34 | 35 | 31 | 119 |
| POR | 27 | 22 | 30 | 29 | 108 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 37, Ajay Mitchell 18, Scoot Henderson 16, Jrue Holiday 15, Branden Carlson 14, Jared McCain 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 40 | 37 | 3 | 4 | 13-22 | 3-6 | 8-8 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 28 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 7-14 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 25 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 6-11 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenrich Williams | 22 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 5-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jared McCain | 21 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 5-10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Nikola Topic | 33 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Micah Peavy | 25 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aday Mara | 20 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 4-6 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Alex Caruso | 16 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toumani Camara | 37 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Deni Avdija | 28 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 4-21 | 1-11 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Damian Lillard | 25 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5-15 | 2-9 | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Scoot Henderson | 25 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 6-9 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Clingan | 20 | 7 | 12 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jrue Holiday | 30 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 5-10 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 26 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Robert Williams III | 21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Branden Carlson | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 6-9 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Potter | 7 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Youngblood | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 30 · Mitchell 25 · Peavy 25 · McCain 24 · Hartenstein 22 · Mara 21 · Williams 20 · Stirtz 19 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams
Trail Blazers: Avdija 31 · Holiday 29 · Lillard 28 · Camara 27 · Clingan 24 · Henderson 23 · Williams 19 · Potter 18 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Trail Blazers take 47% of their shots from deep (3rd-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.04 points a shot. Thunder give up 45% of shots from three (3rd-most).
In transition. Trail Blazers get out in transition 9th-fewest in the NBA. Thunder allow the fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. Trail Blazers finish 66% at the basket (20th of 30; 30% of their shots). Thunder allow 61% there (the lowest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 73% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 18%.
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 43% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 25%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (32% of sims), they win 66%, up from 43%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (25% of sims), they win 62%, up from 43%.
When Thunder hit 12+ threes (37% of sims), they win 72%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Thunder score 115.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.1 against this defense.
Trail Blazers score 118.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.7 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 28.7 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.8 · 3.2 · 4.3.
Mitchell: 17.1 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.4 · 3.3 · 2.4.
Avdija: 24.2 pts · 6.2 reb · 6.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 5.2 · 5.8.
Lillard: 19.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 4.4 ast over his last 9. In the sims: 16.4 · 2.8 · 3.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 57% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (OKC −1.5): the Thunder cover in 54%.
Total 226.5: over in 48%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Robert Williams III6+ pts67%of sims55%books imply
- Robert Williams III12+ pts + reb65%of sims56%books imply
- Toumani Camara2+ ast56%of sims49%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.