Thunder vs Spurs prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, Tuesday, October 20, 2026 · Frost Bank Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 114, Spurs 111.
Final: OKC 116–104. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 114, Spurs 111 (the Thunder won 51% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 51% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 36 | 27 | 20 | 31 | 114 |
| SA | 37 | 29 | 20 | 25 | 111 |
Top scorers: De'Aaron Fox 24, Stephon Castle 23, Jalen Williams 22, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 22, Ajay Mitchell 17, Devin Vassell 15
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.