Thunder vs Kings prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Golden 1 Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 125, Kings 102.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 75% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 41 pts · 3 reb · 6 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 19 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 24 pts · 1 reb · 8 ast
- Zach LaVine Kings 16 pts · 4 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 28 | 35 | 31 | 31 | 125 |
| SAC | 23 | 31 | 29 | 19 | 102 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 41, Darius Acuff Jr. 24, Ajay Mitchell 19, Jared McCain 19, Zach LaVine 16, Aday Mara 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 28 | 41 | 3 | 6 | 15-26 | 1-6 | 10-10 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 25 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 7-14 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 25 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 4-9 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared McCain | 23 | 19 | 4 | 2 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenrich Williams | 14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aday Mara | 24 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 6-9 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 23 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Dix | 23 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Peavy | 22 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 3-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Alex Caruso | 19 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Nikola Topic | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach LaVine | 40 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 6-13 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 35 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 10-28 | 2-11 | 2-3 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Domantas Sabonis | 28 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 3-7 | 0-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 28 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1-10 | 1-6 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Keegan Murray | 19 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Leaky Black | 37 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 31 | 10 | 13 | 2 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Emanuel Sharp | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 31 · Mitchell 25 · McCain 25 · Hartenstein 25 · Peavy 24 · Mara 24 · Stirtz 21 · Caruso 21 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams
Kings: Acuff 35 · Sabonis 32 · LaVine 31 · Hunter 30 · Black 29 · Murray 27 · Achiuwa 26 · Cardwell 25 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Thunder get out in transition 2nd-fewest in the NBA. Kings allow 3rd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Kings grab 25% of their misses (2nd-fewest). Thunder let opponents get 26% (8th-fewest).
Ball security. Thunder turn it over on 13% of possessions (the fewest). Kings force turnovers on 14% (13th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 80% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 33%.
McCain hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 52% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 50%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 20%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 13+ threes (38% of sims), they win 41%, up from 25%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (31% of sims), they win 88%, up from 75%.
When Kings commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (32% of sims), they win 39%, up from 25%.
Reality check
Thunder score 110.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.4 against this defense.
Kings score 109.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 106.4 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 30.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 30.9 · 4 · 4.3.
Mitchell: 17.5 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.8 · 3.4 · 2.8.
Acuff: 25.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 7.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.6 · 3.3 · 6.5.
LaVine: 21.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.5 · 2.9 · 3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 75% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Precious Achiuwa3+ reb82%of sims90Our Rating
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander30+ pts + reb + ast81%of sims89Our Rating
- Zach LaVine1+ threes90%of sims88Our Rating
- Domantas Sabonis15+ pts + reb88%of sims87Our Rating
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander25+ pts + reb84%of sims87Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.