Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, Friday, November 6, 2026 · FedExForum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 115, Grizzlies 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 59% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 27 pts · 7 reb · 6 ast
- Ajay Mitchell Thunder 21 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Ty Jerome Grizzlies 21 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Cedric Coward Grizzlies 18 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKC | 20 | 21 | 40 | 34 | 115 |
| MEM | 24 | 28 | 30 | 29 | 111 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 27, Ty Jerome 21, Ajay Mitchell 21, Cedric Coward 18, Jaylen Wells 16, Bennett Stirtz 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 38 | 27 | 7 | 6 | 10-25 | 5-10 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 22 | 21 | 6 | 1 | 8-12 | 2-4 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jared McCain | 21 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 20 | 10 | 11 | 4 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kenrich Williams | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 23 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6-12 | 4-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Peavy | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Dix | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Caruso | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 4-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Dalen Terry | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 4-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Aday Mara | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 15 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Coward | 27 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7-14 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Cameron Boozer | 25 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 3-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaylen Wells | 24 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 5-10 | 1-4 | 5-8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Jerome | 21 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 8-15 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Zach Edey | 21 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | 32 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 4-7 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cam Spencer | 27 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1-6 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jerami Grant | 25 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 2-8 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Javon Small | 21 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| GG Jackson | 15 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 30 · Mitchell 24 · McCain 23 · Peavy 23 · Hartenstein 22 · Mara 20 · Williams 19 · Caruso 19 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Jaylin Williams
Grizzlies: Boozer 30 · Grant 30 · Jerome 27 · Coward 26 · Wells 24 · Spencer 24 · Small 24 · Edey 23 (projected minutes). Out: Scotty Pippen Jr.
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Grizzlies finish 65% at the basket (6th-worst; 26% of their shots). Thunder allow 62% there (the lowest).
From three. Grizzlies take 44% of their shots from deep (11th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Thunder give up 45% of shots from three (4th-most).
Ball security. Thunder turn it over on 13% of possessions (the fewest). Grizzlies force turnovers on 14% (15th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 77% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 22%.
Jerome leads the Grizzlies in scoring in 46% of sims.
Boozer posts a double-double in 28%.
Jerome hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When Grizzlies hit 16+ threes (35% of sims), they win 60%, up from 41%.
When Grizzlies commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (32% of sims), they win 59%, up from 41%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (33% of sims), they win 76%, up from 59%.
Reality check
Thunder score 116 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.6 against this defense.
Grizzlies score 116.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 111.7 against this defense.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 29 · 4 · 5.
Mitchell: 14.6 pts · 3.3 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.3 · 3.5 · 3.1.
Jerome: 24.4 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.1 · 2.8 · 4.2.
Boozer: 16.5 pts · 9.8 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 8. In the sims: 14.4 · 8.3 · 3.7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 59% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.