Thunder vs Clippers prediction

How it played out: quarter by quarter

Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 42, Darius Garland 26, Bennett Stirtz 19, Jared McCain 16, Keaton Wagler 15, Brook Lopez 13

Box score

The breakdown

1. The setup

   Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).

2. Who's in the sim

   Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 30 · McCain 25 · Hartenstein 24 · Peavy 23 · Mara 22 · Stirtz 19 · Caruso 19 · Williams 18 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace

   Clippers: Garland 31 · Hachimura 28 · Jones 27 · Dunn 27 · Strus 26 · Wagler 26 · Sanders 25 · Lopez 23 (projected minutes). Out: Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Bradley Beal

3. What's mapped in

   • Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
   • Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
   • Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
   • Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
   • Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.

4. What decides it

   In transition. Thunder get out in transition 3rd-fewest in the NBA. Clippers allow 10th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.

   Second chances. Clippers grab 26% of their misses (6th-fewest). Thunder let opponents get 26% (7th-fewest).

   From three. Clippers take 42% of their shots from deep (16th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.09 points a shot. Thunder give up 46% of shots from three (2nd-most).

5. Things you'll notice in the sim

   Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 86% of sims.

   Hartenstein posts a double-double in 27%.

   Garland leads the Clippers in scoring in 40% of sims.

   Strus hits 5+ threes in 13%.

6. What swings it

   When Clippers hit 17+ threes (33% of sims), they win 62%, up from 39%.

   When Clippers commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (35% of sims), they win 55%, up from 39%.

   When Thunder hit 13+ threes (35% of sims), they win 77%, up from 61%.

7. Reality check

   Thunder score 111.4 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.7 against this defense.

   Clippers score 113.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 108.9 against this defense.

   Gilgeous-Alexander: 29.7 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 31.5 · 4.1 · 4.2.

   McCain: 12.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.9 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.6 · 3.5 · 1.8.

   Garland: 19.6 pts · 2 reb · 6.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.6 · 2.1 · 6.2.

   Hachimura: 14.8 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.5 · 5.5 · 1.3.

8. The 10,000 vs the market

   The Thunder win 61% of the 10,000 games.

   Against the spread (OKC −6.5): the Thunder cover in 46%.

   Total 222.5: over in 49%.

   The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.

9. Props: our top trends, the sims and the price

   • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander30+ pts + reb + ast
     82%of sims
     89Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Darius Garland1+ threes
     91%of sims
     88Our Rating
     94%books imply
   • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander25+ pts + reb
     85%of sims
     87Our Rating
     93%books imply
   • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander1+ threes
     86%of sims
     86Our Rating
     92%books imply
   • Darius Garland10+ pts
     89%of sims
     85Our Rating
     94%books imply