Suns vs Thunder prediction
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder, Monday, October 26, 2026 · Paycom Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Thunder 113, Suns 110.
Final: OKC 125–114. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Thunder 113, Suns 110 (the Thunder won 69% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Thunder won 69% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Devin Booker Suns 24 pts · 5 reb · 3 ast
- Dillon Brooks Suns 18 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Thunder 30 pts · 5 reb · 4 ast
- Kenrich Williams Thunder 15 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 27 | 24 | 22 | 37 | 110 |
| OKC | 24 | 24 | 31 | 34 | 113 |
Top scorers: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30, Devin Booker 24, Dillon Brooks 18, Jalen Green 17, Kenrich Williams 15, Ajay Mitchell 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 36 | 24 | 5 | 3 | 8-17 | 1-7 | 7-8 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Miles Bridges | 31 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 2-7 | 0-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dillon Brooks | 28 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 6-14 | 2-6 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Collin Gillespie | 27 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Green | 23 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 8-18 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Kennard | 41 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 4-11 | 4-9 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 20 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Ryan Dunn | 16 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 10 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 3-4 | 2-3 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Khaman Maluach | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 37 | 30 | 5 | 4 | 12-23 | 1-6 | 5-8 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | 27 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3-6 | 1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Peavy | 30 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 4-8 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brooks Barnhizer | 24 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2-8 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 23 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Caruso | 23 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jaylin Williams | 21 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3-5 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jared McCain | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aday Mara | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenrich Williams | 15 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Bennett Stirtz | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 104).
Thunder are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Suns: Booker 34 · Bridges 29 · Brooks 28 · Green 27 · Kennard 25 · Gillespie 25 · Goodwin 23 · Spencer 22 (projected minutes). Out: Oso Ighodaro, Mark Williams
Thunder: Gilgeous-Alexander 43 · Mitchell 30 · Hartenstein 27 · Caruso 24 · Peavy 23 · McCain 21 · Williams 20 · Mara 17 (projected minutes). Out: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Nikola Topic
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Suns finish 66% at the basket (7th-worst; 25% of their shots). Thunder allow 62% there (the lowest).
In transition. Thunder get out in transition 7th-fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 3rd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.46 points a shot at the rim.
From three. Suns take 45% of their shots from deep (7th-most in the NBA) and hit 35%, worth 1.06 points a shot. Thunder give up 44% of shots from three (6th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 58% of sims.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the Thunder in scoring in 92% of sims.
Hartenstein posts a double-double in 37%.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (36% of sims), they win 47%, up from 31%.
When Suns commit fewer turnovers than Thunder (34% of sims), they win 46%, up from 31%.
When Thunder hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 84%, up from 69%.
Reality check
Suns score 112.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 105.4 against this defense.
Thunder score 119.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.6 against this defense.
Booker: 28.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.9 · 4 · 4.7.
Green: 17.7 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.6 · 3.4 · 1.9.
Gilgeous-Alexander: 27.8 pts · 3.7 reb · 5.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 36 · 4.5 · 5.5.
Mitchell: 10.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15 · 3.5 · 3.6.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Thunder win 69% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: the sims vs the price
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander35+ pts53%of sims38%books imply
- Jordan Goodwin5+ reb56%of sims42%books imply
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander40+ pts + reb51%of sims37%books imply
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander40+ pts + ast56%of sims45%books imply
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander45+ pts + reb + ast52%of sims43%books imply
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.