Suns vs Nuggets prediction
Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, Monday, November 16, 2026 · Ball Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Nuggets 111, Suns 104.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Nuggets won 63% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Devin Booker Suns 25 pts · 4 reb · 4 ast
- Dillon Brooks Suns 19 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast
- Nikola Jokic Nuggets 28 pts · 5 reb · 6 ast
- DeMar DeRozan Nuggets 20 pts · 1 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 22 | 33 | 26 | 23 | 104 |
| DEN | 28 | 27 | 29 | 27 | 111 |
Top scorers: Nikola Jokic 28, Devin Booker 25, DeMar DeRozan 20, Dillon Brooks 19, Jamal Murray 16, Christian Braun 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 37 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 11-18 | 2-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Miles Bridges | 35 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Green | 34 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 5-13 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Dillon Brooks | 27 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 5-12 | 3-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 21 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Collin Gillespie | 25 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3-9 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Khaman Maluach | 24 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kennard | 16 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 35 | 28 | 5 | 6 | 12-21 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Cameron Johnson | 35 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2-8 | 2-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Braun | 31 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6-16 | 1-9 | 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamal Murray | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 6-14 | 3-9 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Gordon | 29 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 26 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 5-8 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trevon Brazile | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 17 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Jones | 14 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Suns: Booker 32 · Bridges 28 · Brooks 28 · Gillespie 26 · Green 24 · Goodwin 22 · Spencer 21 · Ighodaro 20 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
Nuggets: Murray 34 · Jokic 33 · Braun 31 · Johnson 29 · Gordon 27 · DeRozan 26 · Brazile 23 · Jones 18 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Nuggets get out in transition 5th-fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 6th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Suns turn it over on 14% of possessions (10th-fewest). Nuggets force turnovers on 13% (4th-fewest).
From three. Suns take 43% of their shots from deep (12th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.07 points a shot. Nuggets give up 44% of shots from three (7th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 61% of sims.
Bridges posts a double-double in 18%.
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 43% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 60%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 18%.
What swings it
When Suns hit 15+ threes (29% of sims), they win 58%, up from 37%.
When Nuggets hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 80%, up from 63%.
When Nuggets commit fewer turnovers than Suns (35% of sims), they win 78%, up from 63%.
Reality check
Suns score 110.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.5 against this defense.
Nuggets score 119.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.8 against this defense.
Booker: 26.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.1 · 2.8 · 4.3.
Brooks: 14.7 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.9 · 3.8 · 1.7.
Murray: 25.9 pts · 5.3 reb · 6.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.2 · 5.3 · 5.6.
Jokic: 23.7 pts · 10.3 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 24.1 · 10.2 · 7.3.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Nuggets win 63% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Dillon Brooks1+ threes79%of sims89Our Rating
- Jamal Murray1+ threes94%of sims88Our Rating
- Dillon Brooks10+ pts72%of sims88Our Rating
- Devin Booker25+ pts + reb + ast71%of sims87Our Rating
- Miles Bridges3+ reb92%of sims86Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.