Spurs vs Trail Blazers prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Moda Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Trail Blazers 117, Spurs 107.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Trail Blazers won 50% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 33 pts · 10 reb · 1 ast
- De'Aaron Fox Spurs 17 pts · 1 reb · 6 ast
- Damian Lillard Trail Blazers 30 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Deni Avdija Trail Blazers 18 pts · 3 reb · 5 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 27 | 29 | 18 | 33 | 107 |
| POR | 23 | 32 | 37 | 25 | 117 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 33, Damian Lillard 30, Deni Avdija 18, De'Aaron Fox 17, Keldon Johnson 16, Devin Vassell 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle | 36 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 2-13 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Devin Vassell | 32 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 6-14 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 32 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 6-16 | 1-7 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Dylan Harper | 32 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 2-5 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 29 | 33 | 10 | 1 | 11-16 | 3-5 | 8-10 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Julian Champagnie | 24 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keldon Johnson | 21 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 6-14 | 0-2 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Kornet | 15 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Barnes | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deni Avdija | 32 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 7-13 | 2-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Toumani Camara | 30 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 5-9 | 4-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damian Lillard | 30 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 11-18 | 5-11 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Scoot Henderson | 23 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-5 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Clingan | 20 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jrue Holiday | 31 | 12 | 3 | 10 | 5-20 | 2-11 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Micah Potter | 28 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sidy Cissoko | 21 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2-5 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Williams III | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Branden Carlson | 8 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Spurs are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Trail Blazers are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Spurs: Vassell 30 · Fox 29 · Castle 29 · Harper 29 · Wembanyama 29 · Champagnie 29 · Johnson 25 · Kornet 18 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
Trail Blazers: Avdija 32 · Holiday 31 · Camara 29 · Lillard 28 · Henderson 24 · Clingan 24 · Williams 20 · Potter 19 (projected minutes). Out: Shaedon Sharpe, Ja Morant
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Trail Blazers finish 66% at the basket (10th-worst; 31% of their shots). Spurs allow 63% there (2nd-lowest) and block shots 10% more often than average.
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 13% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Trail Blazers force turnovers on 14% (14th of 30).
In transition. Trail Blazers get out in transition 9th-fewest in the NBA. Spurs allow 9th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 62% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 56%.
Avdija leads the Trail Blazers in scoring in 44% of sims.
Clingan posts a double-double in 27%.
Camara hits 5+ threes in 14%.
What swings it
When Spurs hit 13+ threes (36% of sims), they win 66%, up from 50%.
When Trail Blazers hit 17+ threes (30% of sims), they win 73%, up from 50%.
When Trail Blazers commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (38% of sims), they win 65%, up from 50%.
Reality check
Spurs score 119.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.2 against this defense.
Trail Blazers score 118.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.1 against this defense.
Wembanyama: 30.3 pts · 12.8 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 26.8 · 10.7 · 2.5.
Fox: 16.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.7 · 3.3 · 5.5.
Avdija: 25.4 pts · 6.1 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.5 · 5 · 6.
Lillard: 20.1 pts · 4.1 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 7. In the sims: 17.7 · 3.4 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Trail Blazers win 50% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.