Spurs vs Suns prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, Monday, November 9, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 116, Suns 106.
Final: SA 122–96. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 116, Suns 106 (the Spurs won 65% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 65% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 35 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
- Dylan Harper Spurs 16 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Dillon Brooks Suns 27 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
- Devin Booker Suns 25 pts · 2 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 36 | 26 | 34 | 20 | 116 |
| PHX | 44 | 27 | 21 | 14 | 106 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 35, Dillon Brooks 27, Devin Booker 25, Luke Kennard 18, Dylan Harper 16, Keldon Johnson 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 33 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 7-12 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 32 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 11-25 | 2-7 | 11-12 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Stephon Castle | 30 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2-8 | 1-4 | 6-6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Champagnie | 25 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 21 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 6-9 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Keldon Johnson | 23 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 5-8 | 2-3 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Barnes | 23 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Kornet | 14 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| David Jones Garcia | 14 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1-5 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 9-16 | 1-5 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Miles Bridges | 30 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 6-16 | 1-6 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jalen Green | 29 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-4 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Dillon Brooks | 28 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 12-19 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Khaman Maluach | 18 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Collin Gillespie | 32 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 1-4 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Kennard | 24 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 6-13 | 4-9 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 17 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryan Dunn | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 101 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Spurs: Harper 29 · Fox 29 · Castle 28 · Wembanyama 28 · Champagnie 28 · Johnson 25 · Barnes 18 · Kornet 18 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Vassell, Tobias Harris
Suns: Booker 33 · Bridges 29 · Brooks 29 · Green 27 · Gillespie 26 · Ighodaro 23 · Kennard 22 · Spencer 22 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams, Jordan Goodwin
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Suns finish 66% at the basket (8th-worst; 25% of their shots). Spurs allow 63% there (2nd-lowest) and block shots 11% more often than average.
Second chances. Spurs grab 28% of their misses (10th-most). Suns let opponents get 30% (the most).
Ball security. Suns turn it over on 14% of possessions (12th of 30). Spurs force turnovers on 14% (4th-fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 63% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 50%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 58% of sims.
Bridges posts a double-double in 20%.
What swings it
When Suns hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 53%, up from 35%.
When Spurs hit 13+ threes (37% of sims), they win 80%, up from 65%.
When Spurs commit fewer turnovers than Suns (39% of sims), they win 79%, up from 65%.
Reality check
Spurs score 120.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.6 against this defense.
Suns score 110.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.4 against this defense.
Wembanyama: 29 pts · 11.5 reb · 3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 26.6 · 10 · 2.3.
Harper: 16.9 pts · 5.1 reb · 4.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16 · 4.5 · 3.4.
Booker: 26.8 pts · 3.3 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.6 · 3 · 4.1.
Brooks: 16.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15 · 3.5 · 1.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 65% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.