Spurs vs Mavericks prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, Saturday, October 24, 2026 · American Airlines Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 117, Mavericks 114.
Final: SA 122–106. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 117, Mavericks 114 (the Spurs won 61% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 34 pts · 13 reb · 2 ast
- De'Aaron Fox Spurs 20 pts · 3 reb · 7 ast
- Naji Marshall Mavericks 24 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- P.J. Washington Mavericks 16 pts · 6 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 23 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 12 | 117 |
| DAL | 29 | 25 | 30 | 21 | 9 | 114 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 34, Naji Marshall 24, De'Aaron Fox 20, P.J. Washington 16, Walter Clayton Jr. 15, Morez Johnson Jr. 13
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.