Spurs vs Kings prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, Friday, November 6, 2026 · Golden 1 Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 120, Kings 112.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 75% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 28 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- De'Aaron Fox Spurs 21 pts · 5 reb · 6 ast
- Darius Acuff Jr. Kings 23 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast
- De'Andre Hunter Kings 18 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 41 | 20 | 25 | 34 | 120 |
| SAC | 25 | 26 | 28 | 33 | 112 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 28, Darius Acuff Jr. 23, De'Aaron Fox 21, Stephon Castle 20, De'Andre Hunter 18, Keldon Johnson 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 33 | 21 | 5 | 6 | 8-13 | 1-4 | 4-6 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Devin Vassell | 32 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Stephon Castle | 31 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 8-12 | 0-4 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Harper | 26 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 5-11 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 22 | 28 | 6 | 2 | 9-20 | 1-5 | 9-12 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Julian Champagnie | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Keldon Johnson | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 5-9 | 1-3 | 4-6 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kornet | 21 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Carter Bryant | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Harrison Barnes | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domantas Sabonis | 33 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 5-9 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 30 | 23 | 6 | 4 | 9-19 | 2-7 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| De'Andre Hunter | 26 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 6-10 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Precious Achiuwa | 25 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 7-11 | 1-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach LaVine | 21 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4-10 | 0-2 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leaky Black | 36 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Nique Clifford | 32 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 3-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Malik Monk | 21 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Dylan Cardwell | 16 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Spurs: Vassell 29 · Champagnie 29 · Castle 29 · Fox 29 · Harper 29 · Wembanyama 28 · Johnson 26 · Kornet 19 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
Kings: Acuff 35 · Sabonis 31 · LaVine 29 · Hunter 27 · Achiuwa 26 · Black 24 · Cardwell 24 · Clifford 23 (projected minutes). Out: Maxime Raynaud, Keegan Murray, Daeqwon Plowden
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
From three. Kings take 36% of their shots from deep (2nd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.02 points a shot. Spurs give up 40% of shots from three (4th-fewest).
At the rim. Spurs finish 67% at the basket (12th of 30; 33% of their shots). Kings allow 71% there (the highest).
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 13% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Kings force turnovers on 14% (11th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 61% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 56%.
Acuff leads the Kings in scoring in 53% of sims.
Sabonis posts a double-double in 49%.
Acuff hits 5+ threes in 19%.
What swings it
When Kings hit 13+ threes (35% of sims), they win 40%, up from 25%.
When Spurs hit 14+ threes (35% of sims), they win 88%, up from 75%.
When Kings commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (39% of sims), they win 38%, up from 25%.
Reality check
Spurs score 119.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 121 against this defense.
Kings score 110.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.8 against this defense.
Wembanyama: 30.3 pts · 12.8 reb · 3.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.6 · 10.7 · 2.6.
Fox: 16.8 pts · 3.8 reb · 6.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15.2 · 3.3 · 5.9.
Acuff: 25.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 7 ast over his last 8. In the sims: 24 · 3.3 · 5.2.
LaVine: 21.2 pts · 3.2 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 2.8 · 2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 75% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.