Spurs vs Jazz prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Delta Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 118, Jazz 114.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 76% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 35 pts · 14 reb · 1 ast
- Stephon Castle Spurs 18 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- Keyonte George Jazz 26 pts · 5 reb · 7 ast
- Darryn Peterson Jazz 21 pts · 1 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 29 | 25 | 40 | 24 | 118 |
| UTAH | 23 | 26 | 41 | 24 | 114 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 35, Keyonte George 26, Darryn Peterson 21, Stephon Castle 18, Jaxson Hayes 15, Kyle Filipowski 13
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | 36 | 35 | 14 | 1 | 10-18 | 5-9 | 10-12 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| Stephon Castle | 34 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7-13 | 2-4 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Devin Vassell | 29 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Dylan Harper | 25 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4-14 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 24 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0-5 | 0-2 | 5-6 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Keldon Johnson | 25 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 3-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Barnes | 24 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 4-9 | 3-8 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Champagnie | 22 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-8 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Luke Kornet | 18 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Carter Bryant | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darryn Peterson | 35 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 9-14 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Keyonte George | 33 | 26 | 5 | 7 | 9-17 | 5-11 | 3-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| Ace Bailey | 30 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3-13 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaxson Hayes | 17 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 4-8 | 1-1 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Josh Green | 15 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 30 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 6-13 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Brice Sensabaugh | 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 3-11 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Okogie | 16 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Mo Bamba | 16 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Svi Mykhailiuk | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Collier | 12 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Bradley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 103 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Spurs: Harper 29 · Champagnie 28 · Vassell 28 · Wembanyama 27 · Castle 27 · Johnson 27 · Fox 27 · Kornet 17 (projected minutes). Out: Tobias Harris
Jazz: George 30 · Bailey 29 · Peterson 29 · Hayes 22 · Okogie 20 · Green 20 · Bamba 18 · Sensabaugh 17 (projected minutes). Out: Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkic, Jaren Jackson Jr.
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
At the rim. Jazz finish 66% at the basket (6th-worst; 25% of their shots). Spurs allow 63% there (2nd-lowest) and block shots 15% more often than average.
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 13% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Jazz force turnovers on 13% (6th-fewest).
From three. Jazz take 42% of their shots from deep (17th of 30 in the NBA) and hit 34%, worth 1.03 points a shot. Spurs give up 40% of shots from three (the fewest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 65% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 55%.
Champagnie hits 5+ threes in 8%.
George leads the Jazz in scoring in 45% of sims.
Peterson hits 5+ threes in 9%.
What swings it
When Jazz hit 14+ threes (32% of sims), they win 41%, up from 24%.
When Spurs hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 90%, up from 76%.
When Jazz commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (32% of sims), they win 38%, up from 24%.
Reality check
Spurs score 120.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 120.5 against this defense.
Jazz score 110.1 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109 against this defense.
Wembanyama: 30.3 pts · 11.6 reb · 3.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 27.2 · 10.6 · 2.5.
Harper: 17.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 4.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.3 · 4.8 · 4.1.
George: 20.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 6.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.8 · 3.8 · 5.6.
Peterson: 17.8 pts · 4.3 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.1 · 3.6 · 3.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 76% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Victor Wembanyama15+ pts + ast95%of sims93Our Rating
- Victor Wembanyama25+ pts + reb + ast91%of sims91Our Rating
- De'Aaron Fox15+ pts + ast68%of sims89Our Rating
- Devin Vassell1+ threes81%of sims87Our Rating
- De'Aaron Fox10+ pts68%of sims87Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.