Spurs vs Bulls prediction
San Antonio Spurs at Chicago Bulls, Wednesday, November 11, 2026 · United Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Spurs 120, Bulls 110.
Final: SA 124–119. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Spurs 120, Bulls 110 (the Spurs won 72% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Spurs won 72% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- De'Aaron Fox Spurs 25 pts · 8 reb · 7 ast
- Victor Wembanyama Spurs 25 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast
- Caleb Wilson Bulls 16 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast
- Matas Buzelis Bulls 16 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SA | 30 | 24 | 34 | 32 | 120 |
| CHI | 28 | 28 | 30 | 24 | 110 |
Top scorers: Victor Wembanyama 25, De'Aaron Fox 25, Stephon Castle 24, Matas Buzelis 16, Caleb Wilson 16, Dylan Harper 15
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Harper | 36 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 7-12 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 35 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10-16 | 3-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Victor Wembanyama | 31 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 7-14 | 2-3 | 9-12 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Stephon Castle | 29 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 11-20 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Julian Champagnie | 27 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2-7 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Keldon Johnson | 25 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Harrison Barnes | 16 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Kornet | 15 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan McLaughlin | 14 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Carter Bryant | 8 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarris Reed Jr. | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Buzelis | 32 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 6-9 | 2-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Josh Giddey | 29 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Caleb Wilson | 27 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 6-13 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Nic Claxton | 25 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Jalen Smith | 25 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6-11 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leonard Miller | 25 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4-12 | 1-7 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Jones | 20 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 20 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2-9 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Williams | 15 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-5 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaac Okoro | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zach Collins | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 104 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Spurs: Harper 29 · Fox 28 · Wembanyama 28 · Castle 28 · Champagnie 28 · Johnson 26 · Barnes 19 · Kornet 17 (projected minutes). Out: Devin Vassell, Tobias Harris
Bulls: Wilson 30 · Giddey 27 · Williams 26 · Miller 24 · Buzelis 24 · Jones 21 · Claxton 21 · Smith 20 (projected minutes). Out: Norman Powell
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Spurs turn it over on 13% of possessions (2nd-fewest). Bulls force turnovers on 13% (3rd-fewest).
At the rim. Bulls finish 64% at the basket (5th-worst; 35% of their shots). Spurs allow 63% there (2nd-lowest) and block shots 13% more often than average.
Second chances. Spurs grab 28% of their misses (8th-most). Bulls let opponents get 28% (5th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Wembanyama leads the Spurs in scoring in 70% of sims.
Wembanyama posts a double-double in 55%.
Champagnie hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Wilson leads the Bulls in scoring in 41% of sims.
Giddey posts a double-double in 22%.
Wilson hits 5+ threes in 11%.
What swings it
When Bulls hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 47%, up from 28%.
When Bulls commit fewer turnovers than Spurs (36% of sims), they win 41%, up from 28%.
When Spurs hit 14+ threes (37% of sims), they win 86%, up from 72%.
Reality check
Spurs score 119.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 122.3 against this defense.
Bulls score 113.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.4 against this defense.
Wembanyama: 30.9 pts · 12 reb · 3.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 29.6 · 10.6 · 2.6.
Harper: 17.3 pts · 5.2 reb · 4.1 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.9 · 4.6 · 3.8.
Wilson: 19.3 pts · 6.3 reb · 2.1 ast over his last 9. In the sims: 18.7 · 5.2 · 1.6.
Buzelis: 13.7 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 13.3 · 4.2 · 2.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Spurs win 72% of the 10,000 games.
Against the spread (SA −15.5): the Spurs cover in 37%.
Total 236.5: over in 46%.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.