Rockets vs Wizards prediction
Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards, Sunday, November 15, 2026 · Capital One Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 117, Wizards 112.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 66% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 27 pts · 9 reb · 6 ast
- Kevin Durant Rockets 20 pts · 7 reb · 4 ast
- AJ Dybantsa Wizards 23 pts · 7 reb · 0 ast
- Trae Young Wizards 22 pts · 2 reb · 7 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 30 | 23 | 23 | 41 | 117 |
| WSH | 32 | 31 | 26 | 23 | 112 |
Top scorers: Alperen Sengun 27, AJ Dybantsa 23, Trae Young 22, Kevin Durant 20, Kyshawn George 16, Reed Sheppard 14
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alperen Sengun | 36 | 27 | 9 | 6 | 13-21 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Amen Thompson | 35 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 4-10 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Fred VanVleet | 34 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 5-11 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Durant | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 10-10 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 29 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tari Eason | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 6-15 | 1-6 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Reed Sheppard | 22 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 5-11 | 4-6 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 19 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 3-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Phillips | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dybantsa | 40 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 7-15 | 4-6 | 5-8 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Anthony Davis | 34 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 3-10 | 0-1 | 4-5 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Trae Young | 33 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 6-12 | 1-6 | 9-10 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyshawn George | 30 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 6-8 | 4-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Sarr | 22 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 6-7 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre Johnson | 28 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4-9 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2-4 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Anthony Gill | 26 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 100 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Rockets: Sengun 32 · Smith 32 · Durant 32 · Thompson 32 · Eason 29 · VanVleet 29 · Sheppard 22 · Tshiebwe 15 (projected minutes). Out: Marcus Smart, Steven Adams
Wizards: Young 34 · Davis 33 · Dybantsa 32 · George 32 · Coulibaly 31 · Johnson 28 · Sarr 26 · Gill 24 (projected minutes). Out: Jamir Watkins, Justin Champagnie, Tristan Vukcevic
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Rockets grab 30% of their misses (the most). Wizards let opponents get 29% (2nd-most).
From three. Rockets take 38% of their shots from deep (2nd-fewest in the NBA) and hit 36%, worth 1.09 points a shot. Wizards give up 41% of shots from three (9th-fewest).
In transition. Rockets get out in transition 3rd-fewest in the NBA. Wizards allow 9th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Things you'll notice in the sim
Sengun leads the Rockets in scoring in 37% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 42%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 10%.
Davis leads the Wizards in scoring in 49% of sims.
Davis posts a double-double in 48%.
What swings it
When Wizards commit fewer turnovers than Rockets (38% of sims), they win 49%, up from 34%.
When Rockets hit 13+ threes (34% of sims), they win 82%, up from 66%.
When Wizards hit 11+ threes (35% of sims), they win 49%, up from 34%.
Reality check
Rockets score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.1 against this defense.
Wizards score 110.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 107.4 against this defense.
Sengun: 23 pts · 9.3 reb · 7.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20 · 8.9 · 6.1.
Durant: 20.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.6 · 5.3 · 3.7.
Davis: 25.3 pts · 10.5 reb · 2.2 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.2 · 9.9 · 1.7.
Young: 19.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 8.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.2 · 3.1 · 7.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 66% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Reed Sheppard1+ threes87%of sims91Our Rating
- Alperen Sengun10+ pts94%of sims91Our Rating
- Amen Thompson20+ pts + reb + ast69%of sims91Our Rating
- Kevin Durant20+ pts + reb68%of sims90Our Rating
- Tari Eason3+ reb91%of sims90Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.