Rockets vs Suns prediction
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns, Saturday, November 7, 2026 · Mortgage Matchup Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 116, Suns 111.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 61% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Jabari Smith Jr. Rockets 25 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast
- Kevin Durant Rockets 25 pts · 8 reb · 3 ast
- Dillon Brooks Suns 24 pts · 1 reb · 3 ast
- Jalen Green Suns 22 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 35 | 34 | 18 | 29 | 116 |
| PHX | 19 | 29 | 35 | 28 | 111 |
Top scorers: Kevin Durant 25, Jabari Smith Jr. 25, Dillon Brooks 24, Jalen Green 22, Amen Thompson 20, Devin Booker 16
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | 39 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 9-17 | 1-3 | 6-7 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 35 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 6-11 | 5-7 | 8-8 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Alperen Sengun | 32 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 5-17 | 0-3 | 4-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Fred VanVleet | 32 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-4 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Amen Thompson | 31 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 7-12 | 1-5 | 5-5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tari Eason | 25 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-8 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Reed Sheppard | 21 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 17 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Smart | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 33 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 4-14 | 2-6 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Jalen Green | 33 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 10-14 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Dillon Brooks | 30 | 24 | 1 | 3 | 10-19 | 0-5 | 4-5 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Miles Bridges | 29 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 4-11 | 3-7 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Khaman Maluach | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Kennard | 26 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 5-11 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pat Spencer | 25 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 4-9 | 1-3 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oso Ighodaro | 21 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Collin Gillespie | 18 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 16 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 2-6 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 99 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Rockets: Smith 33 · Durant 33 · Thompson 33 · Sengun 32 · VanVleet 29 · Eason 28 · Sheppard 26 · Tshiebwe 19 (projected minutes). Out: Steven Adams
Suns: Booker 33 · Bridges 29 · Brooks 28 · Gillespie 26 · Green 26 · Kennard 24 · Ighodaro 23 · Spencer 22 (projected minutes). Out: Mark Williams
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Second chances. Rockets grab 31% of their misses (the most). Suns let opponents get 29% (the most).
In transition. Rockets get out in transition the fewest in the NBA. Suns allow 5th-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Rockets turn it over on 15% of possessions (10th-most). Suns force turnovers on 15% (6th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Durant leads the Rockets in scoring in 30% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 34%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Booker leads the Suns in scoring in 58% of sims.
What swings it
When Suns hit 14+ threes (34% of sims), they win 58%, up from 39%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Suns (36% of sims), they win 78%, up from 61%.
When Rockets hit 13+ threes (30% of sims), they win 79%, up from 61%.
Reality check
Rockets score 120.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.7 against this defense.
Suns score 113.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109 against this defense.
Durant: 22.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.2 · 4.9 · 3.5.
Sengun: 20.2 pts · 8.8 reb · 7.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 18.2 · 8.2 · 5.5.
Booker: 28.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.6 · 3.3 · 3.8.
Bridges: 16.9 pts · 6.8 reb · 3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.2 · 6.5 · 1.8.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 61% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.