Rockets vs Spurs prediction
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, Friday, October 23, 2026 · Moody Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 118, Spurs 115.
Final: HOU 114–110. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 118, Spurs 115 (the Rockets won 55% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 55% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Amen Thompson Rockets 34 pts · 22 reb · 11 ast
- Kevin Durant Rockets 19 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
- Harrison Barnes Spurs 23 pts · 2 reb · 2 ast
- De'Aaron Fox Spurs 22 pts · 3 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 34 | 30 | 28 | 26 | 118 |
| SA | 30 | 30 | 27 | 28 | 115 |
Top scorers: Amen Thompson 34, Harrison Barnes 23, De'Aaron Fox 22, Kevin Durant 19, Dylan Harper 17, Alperen Sengun 17
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.