Rockets vs Heat prediction
Houston Rockets at Miami Heat, Monday, November 16, 2026 · Kaseya Center. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 117, Heat 114.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 52% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 27 pts · 6 reb · 8 ast
- Amen Thompson Rockets 18 pts · 7 reb · 2 ast
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Heat 27 pts · 9 reb · 5 ast
- Klay Thompson Heat 20 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 36 | 23 | 31 | 27 | 117 |
| MIA | 37 | 35 | 23 | 19 | 114 |
Top scorers: Giannis Antetokounmpo 27, Alperen Sengun 27, Klay Thompson 20, Amen Thompson 18, Davion Mitchell 17, Jabari Smith Jr. 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | 35 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 6-11 | 3-6 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Alperen Sengun | 34 | 27 | 6 | 8 | 11-20 | 1-3 | 4-5 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Kevin Durant | 34 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1-14 | 0-5 | 6-6 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Amen Thompson | 28 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 8-8 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Steven Adams | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tari Eason | 28 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7-12 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Oscar Tshiebwe | 26 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 5-10 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reed Sheppard | 22 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4-13 | 3-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jae'Sean Tate | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 34 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 4-4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 34 | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13-20 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Davion Mitchell | 32 | 17 | 6 | 12 | 7-14 | 2-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3-7 | 0-4 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Klay Thompson | 14 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 6-10 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pelle Larsson | 35 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ryan Conwell | 30 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 6-13 | 0-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | 25 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 3-6 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1-5 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Richards | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Rockets are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Rockets: Sengun 32 · Smith 32 · Durant 32 · Thompson 31 · Eason 28 · Adams 22 · Sheppard 22 · Tshiebwe 15 (projected minutes). Out: Fred VanVleet, Marcus Smart
Heat: Mitchell 34 · Adebayo 32 · Larsson 31 · Antetokounmpo 31 · Wiggins 25 · Thompson 23 · Portis 21 · Hardaway 18 (projected minutes)
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Heat get out in transition 5th-most in the NBA. Rockets allow the most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Heat turn it over on 14% of possessions (6th-fewest). Rockets force turnovers on 14% (15th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Sengun leads the Rockets in scoring in 38% of sims.
Sengun posts a double-double in 35%.
Sheppard hits 5+ threes in 12%.
Antetokounmpo leads the Heat in scoring in 62% of sims.
Antetokounmpo posts a double-double in 64%.
Thompson hits 5+ threes in 21%.
What swings it
When Heat hit 15+ threes (30% of sims), they win 68%, up from 48%.
When Rockets hit 13+ threes (29% of sims), they win 70%, up from 52%.
When Rockets commit fewer turnovers than Heat (38% of sims), they win 69%, up from 52%.
Reality check
Rockets score 118.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 115.3 against this defense.
Heat score 121.7 a game (last 15). In the sims: 114.3 against this defense.
Sengun: 23 pts · 9.3 reb · 7.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.4 · 7.4 · 6.8.
Durant: 20.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.2 · 4.9 · 4.4.
Antetokounmpo: 28.4 pts · 13 reb · 5.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 26 · 11.5 · 4.4.
Adebayo: 19.8 pts · 8.7 reb · 3.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 16.8 · 7.8 · 3.1.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Rockets win 52% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- Klay Thompson1+ threes93%of sims93Our Rating
- Reed Sheppard1+ threes90%of sims92Our Rating
- Amen Thompson20+ pts + reb + ast66%of sims91Our Rating
- Tari Eason3+ reb84%of sims89Our Rating
- Alperen Sengun10+ pts94%of sims88Our Rating
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.