Rockets vs Hawks prediction
Houston Rockets at Atlanta Hawks, Saturday, October 24, 2026 · State Farm Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Rockets 116, Hawks 113.
Final: HOU 121–114. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Rockets 116, Hawks 113 (the Rockets won 53% of the simulations). The simulations' favorite won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Rockets won 53% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Alperen Sengun Rockets 28 pts · 5 reb · 6 ast
- Amen Thompson Rockets 22 pts · 5 reb · 8 ast
- Jalen Johnson Hawks 24 pts · 10 reb · 6 ast
- CJ McCollum Hawks 17 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 33 | 32 | 28 | 23 | 116 |
| ATL | 33 | 28 | 23 | 29 | 113 |
Top scorers: Alperen Sengun 28, Jalen Johnson 24, Amen Thompson 22, Kevin Durant 22, CJ McCollum 17, Luguentz Dort 15
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.