Raptors vs Nuggets prediction
Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · Ball Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 118, Nuggets 108.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 57% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- RJ Barrett Raptors 29 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Scottie Barnes Raptors 23 pts · 6 reb · 7 ast
- DeMar DeRozan Nuggets 21 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
- Aaron Gordon Nuggets 20 pts · 2 reb · 4 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 37 | 27 | 26 | 28 | 118 |
| DEN | 23 | 35 | 30 | 20 | 108 |
Top scorers: RJ Barrett 29, Scottie Barnes 23, DeMar DeRozan 21, Aaron Gordon 20, Christian Braun 18, Nikola Jokic 17
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | 35 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 8-18 | 0-3 | 7-8 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| RJ Barrett | 33 | 29 | 3 | 1 | 12-18 | 3-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 30 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 4-12 | 1-7 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 27 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-6 | 0-3 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 20 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Malachi Smith | 28 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 5-13 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Shead | 23 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Allen Graves | 21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 19 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 5-7 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Anderson | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamison Battle | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | 42 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3-11 | 1-4 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Cameron Johnson | 38 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3-7 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Gordon | 35 | 20 | 2 | 4 | 7-16 | 0-2 | 6-6 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nikola Jokic | 34 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 6-10 | 0-1 | 5-8 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Christian Braun | 34 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 8-14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| DeMar DeRozan | 31 | 21 | 2 | 4 | 9-12 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Trevon Brazile | 12 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 10 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Nembhard | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 103).
Who's in the sim
Raptors: Barrett 30 · Barnes 29 · Smith 27 · Walter 27 · Quickley 26 · Shead 24 · Murray-Boyles 21 · Poeltl 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kawhi Leonard
Nuggets: Murray 36 · Jokic 34 · Braun 31 · Gordon 29 · Johnson 28 · DeRozan 26 · Bagley 23 · Nembhard 19 (projected minutes). Out: Alpha Diallo, Spencer Jones
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Raptors get out in transition the most in the NBA. Nuggets allow 2nd-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Ball security. Raptors turn it over on 14% of possessions (4th-fewest). Nuggets force turnovers on 14% (6th-fewest).
At the rim. Raptors finish 67% at the basket (11th of 30; 30% of their shots). Nuggets allow 68% there (7th-highest).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 44% of sims.
Barnes posts a double-double in 18%.
Quickley hits 5+ threes in 8%.
Jokic leads the Nuggets in scoring in 40% of sims.
Jokic posts a double-double in 58%.
Murray hits 5+ threes in 16%.
What swings it
When Nuggets hit 13+ threes (30% of sims), they win 63%, up from 43%.
When Nuggets commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (26% of sims), they win 63%, up from 43%.
When Raptors hit 13+ threes (32% of sims), they win 74%, up from 57%.
Reality check
Raptors score 119.2 a game (last 15). In the sims: 116 against this defense.
Nuggets score 125.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.3 against this defense.
Barrett: 20.3 pts · 5.6 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.9 · 5.4 · 3.4.
Barnes: 20 pts · 6.4 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 20.6 · 6.2 · 5.1.
Murray: 27.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 6.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 21.5 · 4.7 · 4.9.
Jokic: 24.3 pts · 11.8 reb · 9.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.2 · 10.3 · 7.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 57% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.