Raptors vs Bucks prediction
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, Friday, November 6, 2026 · Fiserv Forum. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 124, Bucks 120.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 62% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- Scottie Barnes Raptors 26 pts · 11 reb · 4 ast
- RJ Barrett Raptors 22 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast
- Cormac Ryan Bucks 22 pts · 3 reb · 1 ast
- Tyler Herro Bucks 20 pts · 3 reb · 3 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 35 | 33 | 29 | 27 | 124 |
| MIL | 33 | 27 | 36 | 24 | 120 |
Top scorers: Scottie Barnes 26, RJ Barrett 22, Cormac Ryan 22, Ryan Rollins 20, Tyler Herro 20, Kel'el Ware 19
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | 35 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 7-19 | 3-7 | 5-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 35 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 3-11 | 2-6 | 8-8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Scottie Barnes | 26 | 26 | 11 | 4 | 9-19 | 1-3 | 7-8 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 26 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 5-7 | 5-7 | 3-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Malachi Smith | 30 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 27 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 2-6 | 1-2 | 6-6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jamal Shead | 20 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 3-5 | 2-3 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Kyle Anderson | 12 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamison Battle | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3-10 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Allen Graves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro | 32 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 8-10 | 3-3 | 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| Ryan Rollins | 31 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 7-15 | 2-8 | 4-4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 25 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4-8 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 19 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Turner | 18 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 2-7 | 2-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Cormac Ryan | 32 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 9-13 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Jericho Sims | 29 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kel'el Ware | 24 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 8-15 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| AJ Green | 17 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3-9 | 3-8 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Pete Nance | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Who's in the sim
Raptors: Barrett 30 · Barnes 30 · Smith 27 · Walter 27 · Quickley 27 · Shead 24 · Murray-Boyles 22 · Poeltl 20 (projected minutes). Out: Kawhi Leonard
Bucks: Herro 29 · Green 27 · Jaquez 27 · Ryan 26 · Rollins 26 · Turner 25 · Sims 24 · Kuzma 24 (projected minutes). Out: Kam Jones
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
Ball security. Raptors turn it over on 14% of possessions (4th-fewest). Bucks force turnovers on 13% (the fewest).
In transition. Bucks get out in transition 8th-fewest in the NBA. Raptors allow 2nd-fewest fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
Second chances. Raptors grab 28% of their misses (8th-most). Bucks let opponents get 27% (9th-most).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 41% of sims.
Barnes posts a double-double in 29%.
Quickley hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Herro leads the Bucks in scoring in 31% of sims.
Ware posts a double-double in 17%.
Green hits 5+ threes in 16%.
What swings it
When Bucks hit 16+ threes (34% of sims), they win 58%, up from 38%.
When Bucks commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (19% of sims), they win 62%, up from 38%.
When Raptors hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 80%, up from 62%.
Reality check
Raptors score 117.8 a game (last 15). In the sims: 117.6 against this defense.
Bucks score 110.5 a game (last 15). In the sims: 112.7 against this defense.
Barnes: 21.6 pts · 7.4 reb · 5.4 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.2 · 7.5 · 5.2.
Barrett: 20.5 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.2 · 5.9 · 3.1.
Herro: 19.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 4.7 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 17.9 · 4.3 · 3.7.
Jaquez: 17.2 pts · 5.5 reb · 3.5 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 14.6 · 4.5 · 3.2.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 62% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Watch it play out Open the NBA board
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.