Raptors vs 76ers prediction
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, Thursday, November 12, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena. We simulated this game 10,000 times before tip-off, every possession drawn from real play-by-play data for this matchup. Most plausible outcome: Raptors 104, 76ers 102.
Final: PHI 123–112. Before the game the most plausible outcome was Raptors 104, 76ers 102 (the Raptors won 58% of the simulations). The underdog won.
Most plausible outcome
The likeliest final of 10,000 simulated games: the Raptors won 58% of them, and this is the result closest to both teams' middle scores.
Top performers
- RJ Barrett Raptors 16 pts · 5 reb · 5 ast
- Immanuel Quickley Raptors 16 pts · 4 reb · 5 ast
- Tyrese Maxey 76ers 31 pts · 6 reb · 2 ast
- Anfernee Simons 76ers 18 pts · 2 reb · 1 ast
How it played out: quarter by quarter
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 24 | 27 | 20 | 33 | 104 |
| PHI | 22 | 28 | 30 | 22 | 102 |
Top scorers: Tyrese Maxey 31, Anfernee Simons 18, Immanuel Quickley 16, RJ Barrett 16, Jaylen Brown 14, Jamal Shead 12
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malachi Smith | 31 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| RJ Barrett | 30 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6-12 | 2-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Kobe Walter | 29 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Jakob Poeltl | 28 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 6-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 27 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 4-10 | 1-4 | 7-8 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jamal Shead | 28 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 5-6 | 2-3 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Collin Murray-Boyles | 17 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 5-14 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Jamison Battle | 15 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-5 | 0-0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Anderson | 11 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alijah Martin | 11 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Allen Graves | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Bradley | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3PT | FT | STL | BLK | TO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 37 | 31 | 6 | 2 | 8-18 | 3-7 | 12-13 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | 32 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 6-19 | 0-5 | 2-2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| Joel Embiid | 31 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-0 | 6-6 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| VJ Edgecombe | 30 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rayan Rupert | 22 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-5 | 0-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dean Wade | 29 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 2-4 | 1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Simons | 28 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 6-11 | 4-6 | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | 18 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-6 | 0-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Caleb Love | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
The breakdown
The setup
Projected pace: 102 possessions each (league 102).
Raptors are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Who's in the sim
Raptors: Barrett 31 · Walter 28 · Quickley 27 · Smith 25 · Shead 25 · Murray-Boyles 22 · Poeltl 21 · Battle 19 (projected minutes). Out: Scottie Barnes, Kawhi Leonard
76ers: Maxey 34 · Brown 33 · Edgecombe 32 · Embiid 31 · Rupert 26 · Simons 26 · Caldwell-Pope 25 · Wade 23 (projected minutes). Out: LeBron James, Dominick Barlow, Adem Bona
What's mapped in
- Every player's own shot diet by zone (at the rim, in the paint, mid-range, corner three, above the break) and his make rate in each, against what this defense allows there.
- Who passes to whom: each scorer's assists come from the teammates who actually set him up, weighted by tonight's minutes.
- Fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds, at each team's real rate; blocks, steals, offensive rebounds by where the miss came from, putbacks and and-ones.
- Projected minutes from each player's recent games, injuries and rest; starters sit when a game gets out of hand.
- Nightly swings in usage, shooting and rebounding, so a bench scorer can have his night.
What decides it
In transition. Raptors get out in transition 2nd-most in the NBA. 76ers allow 7th-most fast breaks. A break is worth about 1.47 points a shot at the rim.
At the rim. 76ers finish 64% at the basket (4th-worst; 32% of their shots). Raptors allow 68% there (11th of 30).
Things you'll notice in the sim
Barrett leads the Raptors in scoring in 57% of sims.
Barrett posts a double-double in 18%.
Quickley hits 5+ threes in 9%.
Maxey leads the 76ers in scoring in 43% of sims.
Embiid posts a double-double in 47%.
Maxey hits 5+ threes in 10%.
What swings it
When 76ers hit 14+ threes (30% of sims), they win 62%, up from 42%.
When Raptors hit 15+ threes (29% of sims), they win 78%, up from 58%.
When 76ers commit fewer turnovers than Raptors (37% of sims), they win 58%, up from 42%.
Reality check
Raptors score 115.9 a game (last 15). In the sims: 113.2 against this defense.
76ers score 110.3 a game (last 15). In the sims: 109.7 against this defense.
Barrett: 20.9 pts · 5.8 reb · 3.8 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 22.7 · 6.5 · 3.6.
Quickley: 14 pts · 3.4 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 15 · 4 · 4.8.
Maxey: 26.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 5.3 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 23.4 · 3.5 · 4.7.
Brown: 21.6 pts · 6.3 reb · 3.6 ast over his last 12. In the sims: 19.4 · 6.3 · 2.9.
The 10,000 vs the market
The Raptors win 58% of the 10,000 games.
The sims are not built to beat the spread: on past games the side they favored covered about half the time.
Props: our top trends, the sims and the price
- RJ Barrett10+ pts96%of sims90Our Rating
- RJ Barrett15+ pts + reb95%of sims90Our Rating
- RJ Barrett3+ reb90%of sims88Our Rating
- Anfernee Simons1+ threes82%of sims88Our Rating
- Jamal Shead3+ ast96%of sims88Our Rating
How it works
Every possession starts from how the last one ended (fast breaks after steals and defensive rebounds); each shooter takes his own shots by zone against what this defense allows, with assists through the real passing network, blocks, steals, offensive rebounds, rest and late-game rotations. Methodology
Research, not advice
The most plausible outcome is the likeliest single result of the simulations; it is not a prediction or a guarantee. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.